Solana Price Prediction: The $100 Warning Level Broken, Can SOL Hold the Key Support Level?

Solana price continues to weaken, extending the recent downtrend. SOL briefly approached $97 during trading, down about 6% over the past 24 hours, nearing the lower end of the $96 to $127 range over the past week. If the psychological $100 level is broken, the market could see a larger technical correction.

From a cyclical perspective, Solana has fallen approximately 23% over the past 7 days and 31% over the past 30 days, retreating about 66% from the January 2025 high of around $293. Despite the price pressure, funding and trading activity have not cooled off simultaneously. On-chain data shows that SOL spot trading volume over the past 24 hours has risen to about $6.55 billion, a 32% increase from the previous day, indicating increased market contest near key support levels.

The derivatives market also shows signs of volume expansion. According to CoinGlass data, SOL futures trading volume increased by about 40% in a single day, and open interest has slightly risen, suggesting some traders are not exiting but positioning themselves directionally at current prices.

Notably, there is a contrast between the fundamentals and the price trend. The Solana network processed over 2.34 billion transactions in January, a 33% month-over-month increase, surpassing the combined total of Ethereum, Base, and BNB Chain. Meanwhile, the US spot Solana ETF recorded approximately $104 million in net inflows during the correction phase, indicating that traditional funds still see medium- to long-term potential in this asset.

At the institutional level, Standard Chartered recently downgraded Solana’s 2026 target price from $310 to $250 but maintained a longer-term bullish outlook, believing that as meme trading enthusiasm wanes, stablecoin applications and micro-payments could become new growth drivers.

Technically, SOL remains in a clear downtrend. The $115 to $120 range has shifted from support to resistance, with prices staying below the downward moving average. The RSI is deeply oversold but has not yet formed a valid divergence, so short-term reversal signals are still insufficient. If the $100 level is broken, the next support zones are at $95 to $93, with an extreme test possibly at $85 to $90. On the rebound side, around $120 remains the primary resistance level.