Bullish rebound! Circle's earnings report shines, rising 20% intraday, Bitcoin and Ethereum rebound

The second-largest stablecoin issuer in the world, Circle (NYSE: CRCL), has released its Q4 FY2025 financial report. Demonstrating profitability, the stock price surged over 20% during trading. Total revenue and reserve income for Q4 reached $770 million (up 77% year-over-year). After deducting distribution and transaction costs, the core RLDC (Revenue Less Distribution Costs) profit margin expanded to 40%, and adjusted EBITDA skyrocketed 412% to $167 million. The bullish trend also continued in the crypto market, with Bitcoin rising over 4.6% in a single day and Ethereum up over 3.15%.

Circle’s revenue and EPS both beat expectations, leading to a 20% intraday jump

The leading stablecoin issuer, Circle, delivered impressive results for Q4 FY2025, with revenue and earnings per share (EPS) both surpassing market forecasts. Analysts initially estimated quarterly revenue of approximately $745 million to $749 million, but actual figures came in at $770 million, beating expectations by about 3% to 4%, representing a 77% increase from the same period last year. Q4 EPS was $0.43, also exceeding Wall Street’s expectations.

By the end of 2025, USDC circulation reached $75.3 billion, a 72% increase year-over-year. More notably, on-chain trading volume in Q4 hit $11.9 trillion, a 247% annual growth, indicating that USDC’s role as a settlement infrastructure is rapidly increasing.

Total revenue and reserve income for Q4 reached $770 million (up 77% year-over-year). After deducting distribution and transaction costs, the core RLDC profit margin expanded to 40%. This directly drove adjusted EBITDA to soar 412% to $167 million, with EBITDA margin remaining at a high level of 54%.

Circle’s outlook for 2026: Arc blockchain and AI agent narratives

Beyond its core US dollar stablecoin, Circle’s diversified product lines and underlying infrastructure reached key milestones in Q4:

Arc Blockchain Mainnet Launch

Positioned as enterprise-grade infrastructure, the Layer 1 blockchain Arc’s testnet has attracted over 100 institutions, processed more than 166 million transactions, and achieved transaction finality within half a second. The mainnet is expected to launch officially this year.

Diversification of asset strategies beyond US dollar stablecoins

Euro stablecoin EURC’s circulation reached €310 million by year-end, a 284% increase. The tokenized fund USYC experienced a strong 111% quarterly growth after restructuring, with assets totaling $1.5 billion.

Enterprise-level Payment Network (CPN)

55 financial institutions have joined, with an annualized transaction volume of $5.7 billion, enabling real-world B2B cross-border settlements.

Long-term narrative: AI agent economy

After solidifying its infrastructure and profitability, Circle is shifting its growth focus toward a high-frequency machine trading era. The company envisions creating an “Economic OS” for the internet. In the future, hundreds of billions of AI agents will need a low-cost, highly reliable medium for value transfer.

Arc’s low-cost and smart contract capabilities are designed for machine-to-machine (M2M) transactions, micro-payments, and the future Agentic AI economy. While not a major revenue driver this quarter, it offers Wall Street significant imagination for Circle’s potential beyond 2026.

Circle’s 2026 financial guidance

CFO Jeremy Fox-Green provided financial projections at the end of the meeting. The company stated it will not provide quarterly USDC circulation or growth guidance due to the ongoing major shifts in the global currency markets, which are expected to cause quarterly fluctuations. However, in the long term, USDC circulation is projected to achieve a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

For 2026, other revenue is expected to range between $150 million and $170 million. After deducting distribution costs, the RLDC margin is forecasted to remain between 38% and 40%. Adjusted operating expenses are expected to be between $570 million and $585 million. The CFO explained that this reflects ongoing investments in platform capabilities and global partnership expansion.

This article, “Bullish Return! Circle’s Earnings Shine, Stock Surges 20% During Trading, Bitcoin and Ethereum Rebound,” first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.