February 27 News: Ethereum briefly surged to $2,150 on Thursday, then retreated to around $2,034, fluctuating sideways. Currently, $2,000 acts as a key support level, while $2,100 is the main resistance in the battle between bulls and bears. Notably, the $2,100 level corresponds to the on-chain cost basis for addresses holding over 100,000 ETH, used to gauge the profit and loss status of large holders. Since 2020, ETH has rarely fallen below this cost range; during the 2022 bear market, it briefly broke below, but each time it was followed by a rebound.
In the derivatives market, over the past two days, short positions have been liquidated for more than $220 million, indicating significant leverage pressure easing. Funding rates, which had turned negative due to concentrated short positions, have now rebounded to a positive 0.23%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. However, rising funding rates also suggest that if price momentum weakens, a long squeeze could occur around $1,800. Data shows approximately $2.66 billion in long liquidation open interest concentrated in that area, forming a potential liquidity pool.
Volatility indicators are also worth noting. The 30-day realized volatility on a major centralized exchange has risen to 0.97, the highest since March 2025, indicating the market is brewing for a directional move. Technically, ETH remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, continuously forming lower highs since being blocked at $4,800 in late 2025, with selling pressure not yet fully exhausted.
On the ETF front, capital outflows have significantly contracted compared to mid-2025, with reduced bid-ask volatility and slowed institutional selling, but no clear net inflow trend has emerged. Analyst Leon Waidmann notes that weak holders are gradually exiting, short positions are decreasing, and high-leverage longs are slow to add. Technical analyst IncomeSharks points to resistance at the $2,250 channel and pressure from the SuperTrend indicator, warning that if buying interest cools again, $1,500 could become the next focus.
Within the Ethereum price trend framework, whether $2,100 can be effectively broken will be a key determinant of the medium-term trend.
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