The 2026 World Baseball Classic officially kicks off tomorrow, with the Chinese Taipei team facing Australia in their first game. Prediction markets on Polymarket and BC.Game are clearly optimistic about Taiwan securing an opening win. Trading volume for WBC-related contracts has exceeded $1.4 million, with Japan leading Pool C as the favorite with an 87% chance to win the group.
(Background recap: Why are the odds for Taiwan Sports Lottery so different from those on blockchain Web3?)
(Additional context: BC.GAME’s 2025 year — a leading year in crypto gaming)
The World Baseball Classic (WBC) begins tomorrow (3/5) at Tokyo Dome, with Chinese Taipei facing Australia. Head coach Zeng Haoju announced that star pitcher Xu Ruoxi, known as the “Fireballer,” will start the game, aiming for an opening win; Australia will send former MLB pitcher Alex Wells to compete.
“Fireballer” Xu Ruoxi to start, international odds favor Chinese Taipei
On the prediction market Polymarket, trading volume for WBC-related contracts has surpassed $1.4 million, covering over 151 markets including group champions, overall champions, and single-game outcomes. The implied win probability for Chinese Taipei over Australia is 65%, while South Korea’s chance of beating Czech Republic is as high as 94%.
In the overall WBC champion prediction, the United States leads with a 50% chance, Japan follows at 22%, and the Dominican Republic at 20%. The real-time probabilities for the Pool C group champion are:
- Japan: 87%
- South Korea: 9%
- Australia: 5.2%
- Chinese Taipei: 2.9%
- Czech Republic: 1%
Another platform, BC.Game, has set real-time odds for this game: Chinese Taipei to win at 1.54, Australia at 2.3, implying approximately a 65% chance for Taiwan and 43% for Australia. The market clearly favors Chinese Taipei to secure the victory in the opening game.
As the WBC heats up, participation from international crypto communities in sports markets is expected to rise further — for the crypto industry, this is not just a baseball game, but another test of whether on-chain prediction markets can establish a foothold in mainstream sports.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Polymarket bets on Iran war event, exposing the limitations of prediction markets in Wall Street applications
The prediction market platform Polymarket has shown limitations in trading related to the Iran situation. Despite an increase in trading volume, it failed to demonstrate its ability to hedge geopolitical risks and instead became a cautionary example, highlighting its lack of signals for institutional investors.
GateNews39m ago
Polymarket prediction market account profits of 285% in two weeks through 3 GPT-5.4 bets
Gate News reports that on March 6, according to PolyBeats monitoring, the "OpenAI will release GPT-5.4 before March 5" market on the prediction market platform Polymarket, which was previously tracked for 5 suspected insider accounts buying in, has now been settled. Among them, the account with the address 0x169527179bbc4bd99288585fc39eb0e117bf2842 profited 285% within two weeks by placing three consecutive bets on the release date of GPT series models.
GateNews4h ago
A newly created wallet address has invested $50,000 in bets on the Strait of Hormuz situation and has already lost 36%.
Gate News Report, March 6 — According to Lookonchain monitoring, a new wallet address named "Idothisfromtimetotime" was created 3 hours ago and has wagered $50,000 betting that Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz before March 31. Currently, this wallet has lost $18,000, with a loss rate of 36.15%.
GateNews4h ago
Polymarket Data: The probability of a certain CEX IPO in 2026 has dropped to 17%, with ICE investing at a $25 billion valuation yesterday.
Gate News Report, March 6 — According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability that "a certain CEX will go public in 2026" has declined from a high of 57% in early January to 17% currently, with a trading volume exceeding $400,000. Previously, on March 5, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, invested in the exchange with a valuation of $25 billion. ICE has not disclosed the specific investment amount or terms but emphasized a shared vision for the future between the two companies.
GateNews4h ago
Polymarket's prediction of the likelihood of Iran's Supreme Leader's succession has fallen back to 50%, with trading volume exceeding $5 million.
Gate News Report, March 6: According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability of "Iran's next Supreme Leader being Ayatollah Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei," rose to 82% at one point, currently falling back to 50%, with trading volume exceeding $5 million. Previously, Trump stated that he would not accept Khamenei's son taking over as Supreme Leader and that he would need to be personally involved in Iran's succession arrangements.
GateNews4h ago
Vitalik: Prediction markets help understand the world and the near future, hoping the project can optimize market conditions.
Gate News Announcement, March 6th, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated that prediction markets help us better understand the world and the near future. He hopes prediction market projects will focus more on optimizing this direction, especially by developing more conditional markets.
GateNews4h ago
