March 13 News: The cryptocurrency market faces a critical time window today, with over $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple options set to expire. At the same time, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data will be released. The combination of multiple macroeconomic and derivatives factors has traders closely monitoring Bitcoin price movements and short-term volatility risks in the crypto market. Currently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 15, indicating market sentiment remains in extreme caution.
Derivatives data shows approximately 27,000 Bitcoin options will expire today, with a notional value close to $1.9 billion. The current put/call options ratio is about 0.97, reflecting a neutral slightly bearish market sentiment. Open interest is mainly concentrated in put options between $55,000 and $60,000, while call positions in the $75,000 to $80,000 range are relatively fewer. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 25 delta skew continues to decline, suggesting that the previous panic hedging demand has weakened.
Looking at key price levels, Bitcoin’s maximum stop-loss price is around $69,000, below the current spot price of approximately $71,500. However, market models show an about 86% probability that Bitcoin’s expiry price will be above $71,000, indicating most traders are still betting on the price remaining high and consolidating.
For Ethereum, over 186,000 options contracts are expiring today, with a total notional value of about $394 million. The current put/call ratio is 1.20, showing a slight dominance of hedging by bears. Ethereum’s maximum stop-loss level is at $2,000, and the probability that the expiry price will be above $2,100 is about 71%, with the market still watching ETH’s key support zones.
Ripple options are relatively smaller, with about $8.85 million in contracts expiring today. The put/call ratio is 0.13, indicating a markedly bullish market sentiment. Ripple’s maximum stop-loss price is at $1.40, slightly below the current price of around $1.42, with many traders expecting a short-term target around $1.50.
In addition to options events, U.S. macroeconomic data remains a market focus. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the latest PCE inflation report. Economists generally expect core PCE to increase by 0.4% month-over-month and about 3.1% year-over-year; overall PCE is expected to rise 0.3% MoM and approximately 2.9% YoY.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump recently publicly urged Federal Reserve Chair Powell to consider an emergency rate cut before the upcoming FOMC meeting to address inflationary pressures from rising oil prices. However, rate market expectations still show a 99% probability of holding rates steady at this meeting.
On energy policy, the U.S. government announced it will allow countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil within 30 days to stabilize the global energy markets amid tensions in the Middle East. Following the announcement, Bitcoin briefly surged past $72,000, reflecting the immediate impact of macro policy changes on crypto market sentiment.
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