Monetary Policy

Patrick Witt emphasizes that regulatory clarity is essential to access trillions in institutional capital, highlighting ongoing Senate negotiations on the Clarity Act. He notes the government's efforts to centralize Bitcoin oversight and foster collaboration between banks and crypto firms to enhance innovation and participation in the digital finance sector.

February 14 News, the Central Bank of Russia recently announced that it will conduct in-depth research on the feasibility of pegging stablecoins to the ruble and assess their risks and potential benefits. On February 12, Vladimir Chistyukhin, First Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, revealed at the Alpha Dialogue Conference in Moscow that the research plan aims to explore how stablecoins can better integrate into Russia's financial system. This move comes at a critical moment when Russia, facing Western sanctions and global banking access restrictions, is seeking new payment tools. For years, the Central Bank of Russia has opposed stablecoins, especially those pegged to fiat currencies, believing they could pose financial stability and regulatory risks. However, as cryptocurrencies gradually enter the international settlement space and the digital ruble project is launched, the stance of the Central Bank of Russia has changed. Previously, Russia allowed cryptocurrencies for some international settlements, and the digital ruble has entered the pilot phase. It is expected that stablecoins will be fully launched by the end of 2026.

February 14 News, Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano recently stated that as inflation data recedes, Bitcoin investors face the challenge of reassessing their reasons for holding. Pompliano pointed out on Fox Business that the value of Bitcoin lies in its limited supply, and when governments increase money issuance, Bitcoin prices tend to rise. He believes that, like gold, Bitcoin is a preferred long-term investment asset, but during periods of weakening inflation, investors may need to consider their holdings more cautiously. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January decreased from 2.7% in December to 2.4%. Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned that headline inflation data might be lower than actual experience, implying that market demand for inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin could be affected in the short term. Pompliano stated that the macroeconomic environment will continue to influence Bitcoin price fluctuations, which he calls the “currency slingshot effect”—the short-term deflation masking the dollar’s devaluation trend, leading investors to pay more attention to Bitcoin’s value preservation function in the future.

Standard Chartered Bank has revised down its short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market, predicting a potential wave of sell-offs in the coming months but remaining optimistic about a rebound by the end of the year. The Bitcoin target price has been lowered to $100,000, and Ethereum to $4,000, citing low confidence among ETF investors and economic uncertainties affecting market sentiment. Although the short-term outlook is bearish, the long-term market resilience remains positive.

White House crypto policy advisor Patrick Witt stated that stablecoin yields from crypto platforms do not pose a threat to the U.S. banking industry, and banks and crypto companies can coexist and benefit mutually, with banks capable of launching similar products. At the same time, he remains optimistic about the potential of stablecoins, believing they can drive innovation and development in banking. U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that crypto legislation could be delayed due to political changes.

From 2026-02-13 15:00 to 2026-02-13 15:15 (UTC), ETH recorded a +1.49% gain within just 15 minutes, with the price rising from approximately $2,017.15 to $2,047.23. Market volatility was evident, with trading activity and attention increasing in tandem, reflecting the rapid impact of structural capital flows on short-term market movements. The main driver of this anomaly is the continuous inflow of ETF funds, resonating with the synchronized expansion of on-chain stablecoin supply. Data shows that ETH ETF holdings have reached 5.44% of circulating supply,

Analyst Skyler Weinand stated that the soft U.S. inflation in January will not increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, as the labor market data remains strong. He expects the Federal Reserve will not adjust the policy rate this year, despite investors anticipating two rate cuts.

U.S. January CPI data shows the overall inflation rate decreased to 2.4%, below expectations, while core inflation slightly declined to 2.5%. This provides flexibility for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in June has risen to 51%.

In January, US CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Analysis indicates that the data is affected by last year's high base, and the slowdown in inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with future inflation possibly experiencing a phased rebound.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, before the CPI release, based on CME "Federal Reserve Watch," the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by March is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 9.7%. By April, the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut is 28.1%, the probability of holding rates steady is 69.7%, and the probability of a total 50 basis point cut is 2.2%. By June, the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut is 49.4%.

The Central Bank of Malaysia has launched three initiatives to test the "Ringgit stablecoin" and "tokenized deposits," focusing on wholesale payments and settlements, paving the way for policies in 2026. These initiatives will be conducted in a controlled environment and will assess their impact on financial stability.

It is expected that in January, the overall US CPI will increase by 2.5% year-on-year, with core CPI also falling back to 2.5%. Analysts point out that the slowdown in housing cost increases may suppress service prices, but tariffs and price hikes could still support inflation. Despite the cooling data, the market believes there is a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the short term.

The NY Fed has linked tariffs imposed on imports to inflation. Crypto prices are down, possibly in speculation of the upcoming inflation report. The US is working on deals to balance the tariffs effect. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, or NY Fed, has published a report establishing a

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig appoints a 35-member advisory committee of senior executives from the crypto industry to provide guidance on the regulation of breakthrough technologies such as AI and blockchain, with market founder Shayne Coplan of Polymarket predicted to be selected. Traditional financial giants including CME, DTCC, and Nasdaq representatives.

XRP follows the overall cryptocurrency market downward, currently at $1.36. However, in terms of capital flow, the XRP ETF has experienced zero outflows for eight consecutive days, while BTC has seen outflows of $276 million. Unemployment claims have decreased to 227,000, and the Federal Reserve's probability of cutting interest rates in March has risen to 7.8%, with a 63.9% chance in June. Looking ahead, Friday's CPI data release will be a key factor.

Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Bitcoin may drop to $50,000 in the short term, and Ethereum could fall to $1,400, mainly due to ETF capital outflows and poor economic conditions. Although the target prices have been significantly lowered to $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum by the end of the year, the long-term outlook remains optimistic. Compared to previous cycles, this bear market has not been accompanied by major platform failures, indicating increased market resilience.

February 12 News, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took a significant step in the ongoing debate over the structure of the crypto market by officially inviting several senior executives from the crypto industry to join its Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC). This move is seen as an important signal of regulatory authorities accelerating dialogue with the digital asset industry and also introduces new variables to the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory landscape. The invited members come from well-known companies and financial institutions, including Uniswap Labs, Ripple, Robinhood, CME Group, and Nasdaq. For the CFTC, which currently only regulates crypto derivatives and has not directly covered the spot market, such a concentrated introduction of industry expertise is uncommon. The committee was established last month with the goal of providing regulatory agencies with cutting-edge advice on blockchain, artificial intelligence, and new financial infrastructure.

The Federal Reserve released new analytical recommendations on Wednesday, suggesting that cryptocurrencies be classified as a unique asset class used in "non-cleared" derivative markets (including OTC and other transactions not cleared through centralized clearinghouses) for initial margin requirements. The working paper notes that this is because cryptocurrencies are more volatile than traditional asset classes and do not fit into the asset class risk categories outlined in the standardized initial margin model (SIMM).

JPMorgan estimates the Bitcoin production cost has dropped to $77,000 due to recent declines in network hash rate and mining difficulty. The analyst team states that the decrease in mining difficulty alleviates pressure on remaining miners, but the rebound in hash rate indicates that difficulty and costs may rise during the next adjustment. JPMorgan remains optimistic about the crypto market in 2026, expecting institutional capital inflows to rebound, and the passage of the CLARITY bill will promote this trend.

Bitcoin drops to around $66,000, with US Bitcoin ETFs experiencing outflows of over $3.2 billion in the past 30 days. Data released on Wednesday shows that the US labor market in 2026 started stronger than expected, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000 in January, well above expectations, and the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.4% to 4.3%. The January CPI release on Friday will be the next key point, with expectations of a 0.3% increase in both overall and core CPI month-over-month.