At 11 PM tonight, a single number could shake the entire crypto market—the US September Core PCE data is about to be released.

This is not an ordinary economic indicator. Core PCE is the inflation metric the Fed values most, directly determining the policy direction of next week’s FOMC meeting. Previous value: 2.9%, market expectation: 2.8%. Even a deviation of just 0.1 percentage points could rewrite short-term liquidity expectations.

Why should the crypto market care about this traditional financial data? Because today’s Bitcoin and Ethereum are far more than just “decentralized safe-haven assets.” They are deeply tied to Wall Street’s liquidity sentiment. If the PCE data shows stubborn inflation, a “higher for longer” rate policy will continue to suppress risk assets, and a stronger dollar will make hot money more cautious. The result? Already fragile market liquidity could be drained even further, and what you think is the bottom might just be a temporary stop.

Even more dangerous is the “expectation gap” trap. The market has already partially priced in the optimistic expectation of “slowing inflation.” If the data meets expectations, we might actually see a drop as “good news is already priced in.” If it’s above expectations? That would be the real eye of the storm.

What should retail investors do? A few suggestions:

Don’t bet on the data direction. Any heavy position before the data is basically using your principal as tuition fees. Wait for the data to come out, observe the market’s immediate reaction, and give yourself a 15-minute cooling-off period.

Focus on the “expectation gap” instead of the absolute value. The market always trades on the gap between expectations and reality, not just the numbers themselves.

Maintain position discipline. In times of extreme volatility, your risk management skills are a hundred times more important than your prediction skills.

Remember one truth: In the crypto world, the greatest bullish signal is when prices can’t drop, and the greatest bearish signal is when they can’t rise. Whether tonight brings a knife or sugar, staying clear-headed is more important than making a bet. The Fed’s balancing act is still ongoing. What we need to do is not end up on the wrong side when it turns.