As the new year begins, the movement of the US stock market influences the entire asset ecosystem. The performance of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ directly impacts the overall market environment, and cryptocurrencies are naturally included. Recently, SPX has shown some interesting technical signals—bearish divergence on the 5-day and possibly the weekly chart, following a 3-day divergence.

What do these divergence signals indicate? Analysis suggests that the first quarter may face a slight correction, with a range of about 5%-10%. It may not sound significant, but such a pullback often becomes a window for increasing stock allocations—provided you can accept the currently relatively high valuation levels. Honestly, the risk-reward ratio is not as attractive right now.

The VIX has also returned to a key support level commonly seen in history, which is more suitable for taking profits rather than adding positions. The Fear and Greed Index shows that US stocks are in a greed phase. Coupled with these technical warnings, it all hints that caution is warranted. Of course, we shouldn’t over-interpret—macro environment support still exists for certain assets, but it’s indeed necessary to be psychologically prepared.

What does this mean for BTC and the entire crypto market? Simply put, once SPX adjusts, institutional outflows via ETFs tend to accelerate, which directly drags down crypto assets. Therefore, paying attention to the direction of US stocks is more important than ever.

From a technical perspective, the 6200-6000 zone remains a key area to watch, as it could serve as an important support level in the future.

Another interesting data point: SPX has risen 44% since the buy zone we proposed in April. This can be considered the most successful prediction in this year’s analysis. But precisely because of such a significant increase, it’s even more important to be prepared for possible pullbacks.