From a technical perspective, the MACD indicator for gold shows typical signs of waning momentum. Based on the current cycle rhythm, the most significant turning point is expected to occur between January and February, meaning Q1 is likely to see a clear peak in price rally.

However, there are also signs that trading momentum is gradually weakening during this period. The underlying logic is quite clear—by the end of next month, the US two-party system needs to negotiate a budget agreement, which directly affects whether the US government will face a shutdown. If an agreement is reached, the risk is alleviated; if negotiations break down, a government shutdown could reoccur in October.

In practical terms, the probability of reaching an agreement is very high. The US economy is already under pressure, and another severe credit crisis would cause real damage. Such self-destructive actions are unlikely. Once this uncertainty dissipates, large funds withdrawn from gold are very likely to flow into US stocks and the crypto market.

Therefore, the current pullback is just a transition, and the bottom-fishing opportunity is not yet ripe. January is expected to see multiple heavyweight negative events, and market volatility will still exist. Keeping a close eye on these key nodes will provide a clearer strategic layout.