What the hell is this year's Federal Reserve policy? Cumulative injection of over 120 billion in liquidity in 2025, with an additional 2.5 billion yesterday for overnight repurchase agreements, of which 85% is MBS. Plus, since the beginning of the year, there have been three consecutive rate cuts, bringing the interest rate down to the 3.5% to 3.75% range. The Trump administration is clearly paving the way for a larger easing policy next year, fully unleashing liquidity.

The market is soaring without limits. The day after the rate cut was announced in December, Bitcoin entered a rapid surge mode, Ethereum needs no mention, and ZEC, a privacy coin, surged nearly 18% this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also broke 1% gains, and the US dollar index was hammered to a new monthly low. It all looks like a big trend.

But the key issues are not yet resolved. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index remains stubbornly high at 2.9%, and seven Federal Reserve officials are firmly opposed to further rate cuts next year. Such disagreements mean market volatility will only become more intense.

Friends looking to buy the dip or sell at the top, remember these key signals: whether weekly repurchase scale exceeds 2.5 billion is a weather vane, and the FOMC dot plot in January is a must-watch. In terms of operations, maintain small positions and follow clear volume signals, but never blindly chase highs just because the market is attractive—risk and opportunity are often just a thought apart.