Foresight News reports that Willy Woo tweeted that dividing the Bitcoin bear market into three stages is very helpful for judging the cycle. The first stage—the beginning of the bear market—occurs when Bitcoin’s liquidity has already collapsed (this happens in Q3 2025), and the price begins to decline. Bitcoin is a relatively small asset, so it is highly sensitive to liquidity. For this reason, it often leads the global macroeconomy into a bear market, usually by several months. In other words, when smart money withdraws, Bitcoin reacts quickly. Smart money may also withdraw from the stock market, but the stock market does not respond rapidly. In this stage, long-term ultra-bullish investors blindly claim that this is just a correction within a larger bull market, but they cannot provide strong evidence of capital inflows and only talk empty words.
The second stage—global stock markets enter a bear market. Since the stock market is a massive market worth up to $100 trillion, it is like a giant supertanker, slow to move. This is the mid-stage of Bitcoin’s bear market, during which all risk assets are declining, and it is unquestionable that we are in a bear market. The third stage—the dawn at the end of the tunnel. In this stage, liquidity begins to improve, capital outflows peak and start to stabilize. Investors are returning. This stage usually features the last price plunge (capitulation sell-off), which occurs either before the peak of capital outflows or slightly after. According to this bear market framework, Bitcoin is currently in the first stage and approaching the second stage.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Wintermute Analyst: Capital has begun a phased shift towards cryptocurrencies, and BTC outperforming US stocks may be due to capital rotation
Wintermute analyst Jasper De Maere pointed out that over the past two months, crypto assets have underperformed other asset classes, but in the current market environment, digital assets may have an advantage due to their relative independence from macro factors. He warned that future performance could weaken due to inflationary pressures caused by geopolitical tensions, and the market is expected to remain highly volatile in the short term.
GateNews19m ago
BTC short-term rises by 1.35%: Technical breakthroughs and short covering drive price surge
On March 4, 2026, from 15:15 to 15:30 (UTC), BTC's return within a 15-minute window reached +1.35%, with a price range of 71,969.5 to 72,995.0 USDT, and an amplitude of 1.42%. During this period, trading volume expanded simultaneously, market attention surged sharply, showing short-term volatility higher than previous and subsequent periods. Market sentiment gradually warmed, and the atmosphere of capital competition significantly intensified.
The main driving forces behind this anomaly are the breakthrough of key technical levels for BTC and the passive stop-loss of high-leverage shorts during this period, leading to accelerated long positions and a "short squeeze" effect.
GateNews23m ago
ETH short-term increase reaches 2.38%: Macroeconomic safe-haven capital inflows and ETF institutional funds resonate to drive prices higher
On March 4, 2026, from 15:15 to 15:30 (UTC), ETH achieved a return of +2.38% within 15 minutes, with a price range of 2088.93-2144.2 USDT and an amplitude of 2.65%. Trading volume significantly increased in a short period, market attention heightened, volatility intensified, and funds rapidly flowed into mainstream assets, with short-term activity clearly rising.
The main drivers of this movement are the inflow of global macro risk-averse funds and continuous net inflows from ETF institutional investors. Escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven funds toward gold and cryptocurrencies, with ETH and BTC as the mainstream assets.
GateNews24m ago
BARD Skyrockets 61.7% As Looming Breakout Sets to Make Lombard Holders Richer: Analyst
The Lombard (BARD) coin has shown significant price increases, reaching $1.11, with robust trading volume of $63.6 million. Despite a slight recent decline, analysts predict continued bullish momentum, suggesting strong demand for this Bitcoin-backed DeFi asset.
BlockChainReporter52m ago
