According to Alicharts, Bitcoin (BTC) recently printed a new death cross on a significant time frame: the three-day chart. A chart shared shows the interaction of the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA, a death cross signal on the three-day chart.
The three-day chart remains one of the most important time frames for Bitcoin from a macro perspective, as it lies between the daily and the weekly, offering enough long-term structure without being as slow as the weekly.
Ali highlighted that, in most scenarios, every Bitcoin (BTC) bear market since 2014 ended its final leg after the three-day 50/200 SMA death cross.
Bitcoin had dropped 72% before the death cross appeared in December 2014, and after the crossover, BTC fell another 52%. Likewise, Bitcoin (BTC) was already down 67% from the 2017 peak when the death cross appeared. After that signal, it fell another 50%. Finally, in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin was already down 58%. When the death cross appeared in May 2022, BTC fell another 46%.
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The significance of this is that if history repeats itself, even partially, this could signal the beginning of the final leg down of the current cycle, Ali noted.
Ali stated that this does not guarantee it will happen, but most death cross signals on the three-day chart have aligned with the last major downside move before a macro bottom forms.
Bitcoin price
Bitcoin briefly surged to $74,100 in March before pulling back. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 4.93% in the last 24 hours to $68,755 upon reaching a low of $68,402, extending its drop into the second day.
Recent strong economic data has contributed to the scaling back of rate-cut expectations.
Attention now turns to today’s nonfarm payrolls report and wage growth figures. A hotter-than-expected print could further weaken expectations for Fed rate cuts and inject fresh volatility into financial markets.
Traders are reassessing the outlook for monetary policy. According to CME Fed funds futures, investors now see less than a 50-50 chance of two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts this year.
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