#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Non-farm data is remarkably impressive! However, Trump keeps wavering in the US-Iran "peace talks"; what’s next for Bitcoin and Ethereum? Market analysis and trading suggestions!

　　At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March non-farm employment report, showing a significant increase in employment, with the labor market improving notably due to the end of strikes in the healthcare industry and rising temperatures.
However, the overall employment environment remains nearly stagnant, and considering there are no clear signs of ending the war with Iran, downside risks to the labor market are continuously increasing.
For the Federal Reserve, given the potential emergence of inflationary pressures, waiting and watching may continue to be the main stance of policy in the near term.
The U.S. March seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 178k, far exceeding the market expectation of 60k, reaching the highest level since December 2024, significantly improving from last month’s "negative growth" situation, with the previous figure revised from -92k to -133k.
Meanwhile, the U.S. March unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.3%, with market expectations remaining steady at 4.4%. The average hourly wage year-over-year and month-over-month in March rose by 3.5% and 0.2%, respectively, below the expected 3.7% and 0.3%, with previous values revised from 3.8% and 0.4%.
Following the non-farm report, the dollar index surged sharply, reaching a high of 100.1. Major currencies declined across the board, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD dropping nearly 30 points in the short term. Market pricing indicates a decreased expectation of Fed rate cuts in 2026.
In cryptocurrencies, there was no significant volatility after the non-farm data release. This week, affected by Trump’s inflammatory remarks, the US-Iran conflict has been fluctuating repeatedly. Bitcoin and Ethereum also experienced choppy sideways movements.
Generally speaking, sticking to one direction might be better, as trying to profit from both long and short positions simultaneously is not impossible but depends on personal preference.
In the short term, the market shows some correlation with US stocks. Technically:
Bitcoin and Ethereum are still trending downward within the descending channel, which is undeniable. In the larger trend, combined with smaller trends, after bottoming out on February 6, the market has been correcting through oscillations. The current correction is not enough to reverse the major trend. After the last big drop, the price experienced a broad sideways consolidation for about three months; currently, the consolidation has only lasted two months.
Once we understand that we are still in a consolidation phase, we should plan our daily trades based on our own capital, rather than guessing that a one-sided trend is coming!
After understanding the major trend, we can then discuss the short-term direction and trend changes in detail!
In the short term, use this two-month consolidation range for analysis. There’s no need to look at larger ranges or trends, as those are mainly suitable for institutions like BlackRock or Grayscale. During this consolidation, Bitcoin and Ethereum are both trading within the Fibonacci retracement zone of 0.618-0.5, which is expected to be broken only during Sunday night or Monday morning. Over the weekend, prices will continue to fluctuate for indicator adjustments. Focus on Bitcoin, as Ethereum will eventually follow Bitcoin’s trend!
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $67,000, within the Fibonacci 0.618-0.5 zone. Short-term support levels are at $66,200–$66,000; resistance is at $68,000. Over the past two months, this range has created the illusion of a potential breakdown at any moment, but repeated non-breaks can cause unnecessary short-term losses for many short-sellers. Trading with small stop-losses on long positions during this bottoming process offers the lowest risk.
Ethereum shows some differences, partly due to the recent rise in the ETH/BTC exchange rate. Ethereum tends to make quick spikes, and its current candlestick pattern is weaker than Bitcoin’s. The overall trading approach remains synchronized. Ethereum is also trading within the Fibonacci 0.618-0.5 zone, which is quite narrow. Short-term support is at $1,900–$2,015; resistance is at $2,080–$2,100.