AlphaExtract

We're starting to see late-stage behavior in the RoC metric. The 12-month RoC is rising and showing early signs of stalling around levels where Bitcoin has historically peaked. Not quite there yet, but it's getting close. At the same time, the 3-month RoC is surging, which could

Our Gold Fair Value model currently shows a significant dislocation. Based on this alone, Bitcoin appears materially undervalued relative to gold. The model-implied fair value is approximately $98.5k, meaning Bitcoin is trading at a notable discount to its historical

Spot on, Naval. Would love to hear which branch you served in as a proud citizen. Also, when did your kids enlist?

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New open-source indicator shared on TradingView: - Premium Price Action Link below.

A few days later, and we've got some form of a base in the making. I think we still go lower in the short term, but ultimately seller exhaustion feels overdue.

Looking at price through the lens of Cycle Bands adds more of the same confluence. To trigger a buy signal right now, price would have to drop to $47k - which, whether you're a blind bull or bear, would look like a very lucrative opportunity to buy BTC.

Bitcoin continues to show a significant divergence against global liquidity RoC. As mentioned in last week's post, this setup has occurred only rarely in Bitcoin's price history. If it persists, we might see a surprise rally while bears call for lower. The main factor that

Bringing back the 3-month payment option as requested. If you encounter any issues as an active Premium member, when changing the payment option, just reach out directly as always. Appreciate all the suggestions, questions, and criticism - please keep them coming!

Price has now spent roughly two weeks trading below the Liquidity Power Law's bottom band. Structurally, BTC hasn't changed much. This makes it very tempting to just deploy DCA systems and sit tight. But here's what kind of bothers me. The more widely accepted this 'easy

Just finished reading some CBDC articles, lmao yes I was that bored for a moment. 130+ countries are exploring or piloting CBDCs. That's roughly 98% of global GDP moving toward state-issued digital currency. Ask yourself one question: why now?

You won't get far by looking only at central banks. And M2 is not global liquidity - that's a pretty common misconception on CT. Global liquidity is much broader. It includes central bank reserves, commercial bank lending, repo and collateral markets, shadow banking, and much

More and more confluence. Intra-Cycle system waking up as well around these BTC levels.

Get your DCA strategy-components out, our Sharpe Ratio system just fired a buy signal, the first one since 2022. So many other systems giving similar heads up. Anyone actively DCA-ing in around these levels? If not, what's preventing you?

Getting a lot of questions recently about whether the global liquidity cycle has already peaked. Here's a chart to help put things in perspective and manage expectations. After further analysis, we found that plotting the normalized 12-month RoC Z-score of global liquidity

Finally seeing BTC price acceptance above the bottom band as volatility dries up. That said, I would still refrain from calling a bottom here, as its yet to form any kind of base on the daily timeframe.

Short update on the current Bitcoin setup vs global liquidity. Bitcoin is down over 20% in the past 4 weeks while the 3M RoC remains above the 12M RoC and continues rising. This creates a rare divergence in Bitcoin's history. This exact combination - BTC dropping more than 20%

Most people wait for one big decision to change everything. In reality, success comes from choosing discipline every day. Small choices. Long time horizon. Compounding wins.

Lmao yeah, it's pretty much identical. Always good to see people using and learning from our open-source indicators on TV. That said, copy-pasting isn't really learning. Would've been far cooler to see some modification or original thought added along the way.

Our Liquidity Fair Oscillator LT had a BTC buy signal at the 73-62k zone as well, pretty cool as an additional confluence. For context, last buy it did was in March 2025 around 81-84k.