#香港稳定币监管框架 ZEC short-term pullback pressure is evident, how will the Halving market perform? An analysis without pretense.
Fundamentals: Halving narrative and institutional trends
In November 2025, ZEC will experience its third Halving, with the block reward dropping from 3.125 ZEC to 1.5625 ZEC. Looking back at history, ZEC increased by 175% in the three months following the Halving in 2020. Will this happen again?
It is worth noting that some traditional financial institutions have begun to make moves. The Grayscale Zcash Trust has seen its scale rise to $123 million, and some well-known investors have also invested $50 million in the privacy coin sector. Meanwhile, the locked amount in the ZEC shielded pool has exceeded 4.9 million coins, indicating the existence of actual privacy demand.
On the regulatory front, the EU's regulatory policy for privacy coins in 2027 is still in the works, but ZEC's "optional privacy" feature may provide some buffer. Some funds are flowing from other purely privacy coins to ZEC, but it remains to be seen whether this trend can continue.
Technical Analysis: Short-term Risks and Medium to Long-term Goals
The current ZEC price is fluctuating around $476. From a technical perspective, the MACD double lines are operating below the zero axis, and the trading volume has not significantly increased. In the short term, the support level at $425 is likely to be tested. If this level is breached, the next area of concern may be at $368. The RSI indicator is hovering in the overbought zone, and statistically, the probability of a short-term pullback is not low.
However, looking at a longer time frame, the supply contraction effect after the Halving usually takes several months to manifest. If it can successfully break through the resistance level of 505 dollars, a relatively ideal pattern may form on the weekly chart, and the medium to long-term target of 715 dollars is not impossible—provided that the market shows enough patience and the overall environment does not encounter any issues.
Operational thinking: Understand clearly what game you are playing.
If you are a short-term trader: you can consider testing with a light position around $425, but be sure to set a stop-loss around $380. This position is not for going all in, but for testing the market reaction. Remember, short-term fluctuations often exceed expectations, and don’t let greed turn you into a bag holder.
If you plan to hold for the medium to long term: the months before and after the Halving may be a window period, aiming for $715. However, this requires you to withstand mid-term pullbacks and accept the reality that institutions may retreat before you.
Final reminder: Any analysis is not a call to action, and certainly not a guaranteed profit promise. Market data and historical patterns can only provide references; the real decision-making power is in your hands. Don't go ALL IN just because of a few words from some analyst; that's not called investing, it's called gambling.
Fundamentals: Halving narrative and institutional trends
In November 2025, ZEC will experience its third Halving, with the block reward dropping from 3.125 ZEC to 1.5625 ZEC. Looking back at history, ZEC increased by 175% in the three months following the Halving in 2020. Will this happen again?
It is worth noting that some traditional financial institutions have begun to make moves. The Grayscale Zcash Trust has seen its scale rise to $123 million, and some well-known investors have also invested $50 million in the privacy coin sector. Meanwhile, the locked amount in the ZEC shielded pool has exceeded 4.9 million coins, indicating the existence of actual privacy demand.
On the regulatory front, the EU's regulatory policy for privacy coins in 2027 is still in the works, but ZEC's "optional privacy" feature may provide some buffer. Some funds are flowing from other purely privacy coins to ZEC, but it remains to be seen whether this trend can continue.
Technical Analysis: Short-term Risks and Medium to Long-term Goals
The current ZEC price is fluctuating around $476. From a technical perspective, the MACD double lines are operating below the zero axis, and the trading volume has not significantly increased. In the short term, the support level at $425 is likely to be tested. If this level is breached, the next area of concern may be at $368. The RSI indicator is hovering in the overbought zone, and statistically, the probability of a short-term pullback is not low.
However, looking at a longer time frame, the supply contraction effect after the Halving usually takes several months to manifest. If it can successfully break through the resistance level of 505 dollars, a relatively ideal pattern may form on the weekly chart, and the medium to long-term target of 715 dollars is not impossible—provided that the market shows enough patience and the overall environment does not encounter any issues.
Operational thinking: Understand clearly what game you are playing.
If you are a short-term trader: you can consider testing with a light position around $425, but be sure to set a stop-loss around $380. This position is not for going all in, but for testing the market reaction. Remember, short-term fluctuations often exceed expectations, and don’t let greed turn you into a bag holder.
If you plan to hold for the medium to long term: the months before and after the Halving may be a window period, aiming for $715. However, this requires you to withstand mid-term pullbacks and accept the reality that institutions may retreat before you.
Final reminder: Any analysis is not a call to action, and certainly not a guaranteed profit promise. Market data and historical patterns can only provide references; the real decision-making power is in your hands. Don't go ALL IN just because of a few words from some analyst; that's not called investing, it's called gambling.
