AI泡沫破裂：對比特幣與加密貨幣市場意味著什麼

Source: CoinEdition Original Title: AI Bubble Burst: What It Means for Bitcoin and Crypto Market Original Link: Fears of an AI bubble are rising as trillion-dollar investments show signs of strain. Tech valuations are wobbling, sentiment is cooling, and crypto, especially Bitcoin, is feeling the impact as volatility spills over from Big Tech.

Now, the core question: If AI’s boom deflates, what happens to crypto?

From AI Euphoria to Anxiety

For nearly two years, massive AI investment pushed companies like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft to record valuations. Nvidia alone is up more than 13X since early 2023. But recent comments from industry leaders signal that expectations may be running ahead of reality.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai warned the sector shows “elements of irrationality,” noting that sustainable business models may not yet support trillion-dollar infrastructure investments.

JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned that while the capital may pay off in the long term, “some money will be lost.”

Analysts point out that AI’s profitability still lags its costs, while training and operating expenses keep rising, a classic bubble pattern. With markets on edge, crypto is among the first risk assets to react.

How the AI Turbulence Ripples Into Crypto

Crypto’s correlation with tech has surged to ~80%, the highest in six months. When the Nasdaq dropped 4% intraday, Bitcoin quickly fell below $83K. Investors fear three key issues:

1. Unsustainable AI spending: Major firms, including OpenAI, are taking on massive debt for data centers. If AI demand slows, these leveraged bets could trigger risk-off sentiment.
2. High interest rates: Slower-than-expected Fed cuts reduce appetite for speculative assets, pressuring both tech and crypto.
3. Shifting psychology: AI’s once-unstoppable narrative is giving way to growing caution, and crypto often mirrors broader tech sentiment.

Is There Really an AI Bubble?

Billionaire Peter Thiel has sold all his Nvidia shares, marking one of the largest pullbacks from the AI boom this quarter amid concerns the market is overheating. Bitcoin ETFs are also seeing heavy withdrawals, and even miners are pivoting to AI and high-performance computing.

Thiel Macro LLC sold all 537,742 Nvidia shares and 208,747 Vista Corp shares, cutting its stock holdings from $212 million to $74.4 million, leaving Tesla as its largest position.

Nvidia, once the world’s first $5 trillion company, saw revenue jump 56% to $46.7 billion, but skepticism is rising. It followed Michael Burry’s bearish positions. SoftBank also exited its $5.8 billion Nvidia stake to invest in OpenAI, fueling further doubts about Nvidia’s valuation.

Despite the rising nervousness, not everyone believes an AI crash is imminent. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argues the AI build-out is justified, driven by a structural shift from CPUs to accelerated computing, generative AI, and agentic systems. Under his view, GPU demand is fundamental, not speculative.

Notably, analysts offer three possible outcomes for the AI cycle:

• Soft landing: AI investment remains high and yields real long-term value.
• Gentle correction: Overvalued AI equities drop, pulling down risk assets but avoiding a crisis.
• Harsh crash: High-debt AI builders fail to meet projected demand, triggering broader market shockwaves.

All three imply continued volatility for crypto.

What Happens to Crypto If the Bubble Pops

• Immediate risk-off drop: Crypto behaves like a high-beta version of Big Tech; if tech tanks, crypto usually falls harder.
• Liquidity tightening: Financial strain in AI would push capital into safer assets like bonds or gold. Crypto inflows would shrink.
• Potential long-term decoupling: A severe AI correction could highlight Bitcoin’s strengths: predictable supply, decentralization, and independence from corporate debt.
• New opportunities: Historically, tech busts clear the field for the next wave of innovation. Post-AI-correction, blockchain-AI convergence may become more efficient and sustainable.

In Sum

The AI boom is real, but stretched. As markets question whether trillion-dollar valuations and infrastructure plans are justified, crypto sits squarely in the splash zone.

If the bubble bursts, expect short-term pain. But over the longer term, Bitcoin and other decentralized networks may benefit as investors distinguish monetary systems from indebted corporate AI ventures.

As of today, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are deep in the red. Bitcoin fell to $81K and Ethereum slipped to around $2.6K, triggering over $2 billion in liquidations. More than 392,000 traders were wiped out.