#加密领域市场回调 Hindsight is useless; it's about predicting correctly in advance. I already made my judgment on this market cycle earlier, and now the current situation is just as I expected. No need for extra words—those who understand can compare for themselves. $BTC $ETH $ZEC

The opportunities in alts often come with an equal amount of pitfalls. Recently, MMT has been quite popular and has indeed risen sharply. But do you think you've got it figured out? In practice, many people end up getting slapped in the face from both sides, with numerous cases of double liquidation. I saw a guy's MMT trading record, and that chart... to be honest, do you really think you can come out unscathed in such volatility? Don't just focus on others showing their profits. Who would post a screenshot of losing money on social media? Everyone thinks making U is easy, until real money is put in, only to find that high volatility is not a game that ordinary people can handle. In the end, they can only raise their hands in surrender: "Stop playing, give me my money back." #隐私币生态普涨 and $BTC can still understand the logic, alts? That's a different world's rules.

Finally, I have time to sit down and chat with everyone about the rumors and news from the past couple of days (Part One) I didn't expect it to come, but it did, even though I personally am not very willing to see this situation. Let me first report on my account situation. Compared to the high value during the National Day holiday in October, the current drawdown has approached 41%, and I've suddenly lost seven or eighty units. You could say there are no fluctuations in my heart, but that's impossible. This loss is still based on the premise of having a large portfolio composed of major cryptocurrencies like BTC/ETH/ADA, etc. I believe many friends holding small altcoins are probably feeling heartbroken right now. Have you become numb? I don't feel that way yet, because this situation was discussed during the subscription dynamics and in the comments section, as well as in the 1015 live broadcast when I was analyzing it with everyone. At that time, I thought there was about a 30% chance that BTC would drop below 100,000, but I didn't expect it to actually happen. BTC is now in the most dangerous position, with the price touching the weekly MA52 again, which is the annual price support line (Figure 1). The price movement over the next couple of days is particularly critical; if a V-shaped rebound cannot be achieved, then we will have to face a prolonged bottoming-out consolidation period. Do you regret it? I currently don't feel that way. The market trends are all a game of probabilities. A single correct decision and long-term rational thinking are enough to help you withstand most of the risks in the future. Today's floating profit still benefits from the positions established since August last year. Even though the market has pulled back now, the large positions are still in floating profit. After the 1011 crash, I cleared out my positions in B某B and now hold about 30% in cash to observe the market trends. I'm also contemplating whether to deploy my bullets again. During this pullback, the small position's short-term chips are currently at a floating loss of an average price of 0.173 for DOGE, 0.57 for ADA, and 3650 for ETH, but I should not stop-loss these chips in the short term, let's wait and see the situation. Are you anxious? I did feel this way at a certain moment, especially in the past two days, this feeling was very strong. Anxiety does not come from the fluctuations of the account itself, but more from one's own judgment, especially when there is a significant divergence from a technical analyst (Youtuber Tiaofeilo) whom I deeply admire. In terms of short-term technical analysis, he has mentioned the possibility of a pullback multiple times, and I also clearly informed my subscribers on 1029 about the high likelihood of a pullback. The feeling of anxiety comes from knowing that a pullback is likely, yet not taking any action regarding my large position, and instead quietly watching everything unfold (he predicts that the bull market has ended, while I still believe that the bull market is entering a consolidation phase). If the cryptocurrency market begins a technical bear trend from October, the aversion to losses caused by this misjudgment will trouble me for a long time, perhaps it will be another memorable lesson in my trading career. But things are not over yet, everything is a matter of probabilistic judgment. The reason I still do not operate on large positions is actually due to my own rational thinking: The first is that BTC is the largest position, I always believe that the bull market has not ended (gradually withdrawing after reaching the price level of 130,000). The second one is ETH, ADA is the two largest altcoin positions. Based on the average entry cost from last year and this year, I still have some room for operation, but currently, it seems that there are some warning signals in this range. The third is the remaining positions in several altcoins, which is indeed quite a headache. However, even in the worst-case scenario, if we exit at the price range of 100k, the profits from BTC can cover the losses of all the altcoin varieties, so this bull market won't be a wasted trip. The reason for breaking down these situations and ideas is to explain something important to everyone, which is the significance of position combinations and holding costs. This is a topic I have mentioned multiple times in our discussions. I often say that we are different; even when faced with the same market conditions, my thoughts and ideas may not necessarily be suitable for you. This is based on the premise of making judgments. If you have been consistently following my dynamic updates, you would understand the continuity of my operations. Basically, I record every thought and action on my updates. Looking back over the past year, I think my biggest mistake was entering the market fully in December 2024. My greatest relief was the stop-loss on altcoins in February to March, and the partial profit-taking in August to October, which left me with some bullets to maneuver. Looking back at the hellish and destructive market over the past year, those who traded contracts have truly suffered, and those who hoarded altcoins have also endured pain. Even holding ETH and waiting endlessly did not bring about the moment of true victory. I know that more and more people are pessimistic about the future market, and there are constantly voices promoting shorting Changhong. I understand that your anxiety actually stems from these voices, as well as the fear of time; you cannot accept having to hold for a period of time, or even having to wait for several years. At this moment, there's no need to provide you with motivational platitudes. As spot traders, we only need to ask ourselves: do we have confidence in the cryptocurrencies we hold? Do we believe they have value? Are we willing to give them some more time, regardless of what price appears next? Will we still be willing to advocate for them? To increase our positions? You've endured the large-scale pullback in the first half of this year, so this time, can you withstand it again? If you are unwilling, then just wait for the rebound stop-loss. There is no market that keeps falling indefinitely. If we judge this wave of decline is due to the liquidation of long positions, then the market now turning back to attack the bears, just BTC and ETH have both rebounded by 5%, which has already seen close to 5 billion USD worth of funds being harvested. If you are willing, then continue to hold on and wait for the arrival of the spring breeze. Given the current price trend during this cold winter, combined with the news from the macro environment, the time will not be too short; at least a repair period of about 30-50 days is needed. During this time, there may also be 1-2 occurrences of price bottoming (the price bottoming situation of each altcoin is different), and we must be mentally prepared. Of course, for friends who are not prepared to hold long positions, it's best to use stop-losses when trading altcoin spot, as without the principal, all the stories of survival in the market have nothing to do with you. #比特币价格分析