US-based traders are the largest national group on offshore crypto prediction platforms by contract volume and wallet count, despite active geoblocking measures, according to a July 2, 2026 report by blockchain analytics firm Allium. The finding stems from persistent demand for political wagering products unavailable through regulated domestic channels. The offshore platform settled a $1.4 million enforcement action with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, which required it to restrict US access, though a separate US-regulated version launched in December 2025 with narrower market offerings.
Allium Identifies US Wallets as Top Cohort by Volume and Count
Allium's analysis identified US-based wallets as the top political-market cohort by notional volume and by total wallet count. The firm based its country-level estimates on the 6% of wallets it could geotag. Even with that sample limitation, the US cohort outpaced every other country by a significant margin.
The finding aligns with a separate study published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane. Crane estimated that US-based users sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through the platform between May 2025 and April 2026. He used trade timing patterns and market selection to link activity to US participants, even though the platform blocks US-based IP addresses and common VPN services.
US Wallets Show Disproportionate Interest in Foreign Conflict Markets
Allium found that US wallets showed disproportionate interest in foreign conflict-related markets rather than domestic elections. Five of the US cohort's top 12 markets by notional volume related to the Iran conflict, a finding that distinguishes US participation from global norms on the platform.
Election-related contracts, which are available on regulated domestic platforms through venues such as Kalshi, drew comparatively less US engagement on the offshore venue. That pattern suggests US traders specifically seek out market types unavailable through legal channels rather than duplicating access they already have domestically.
CFTC 2022 Settlement Has Not Reduced US Participation Four Years Later
The data exposes a widening gap between the CFTC's 2022 enforcement action and actual US participation roughly four years later. Despite a $1.4 million settlement and a formal requirement to block US access, the offshore platform has not materially reduced the volume of US-origin political trading.
The platform has reportedly begun clamping down on VPN use by blocking IP addresses associated with VPN services, according to a May report from The Information. More than 34 countries now fully block access to the offshore venue, with Spain becoming the latest to restrict the platform as authorities investigate potential licensing violations. Four additional countries, including Singapore and Thailand, have been placed in close-only status, preventing users from opening new positions.
FAQ
What did Allium find about US traders on offshore prediction platforms?
Allium's July 2, 2026 report identified US-based wallets as the top political-market cohort by notional volume and wallet count on offshore crypto prediction platforms, despite active geoblocking measures. The firm based its estimates on 6% of wallets it could geotag.
Why do US traders use offshore prediction platforms despite a CFTC ban?
The data suggests US traders seek market types unavailable through legal domestic channels. Allium found US wallets showed disproportionate interest in foreign conflict-related markets, with five of the top 12 markets by notional volume related to the Iran conflict, rather than election contracts available on regulated US platforms.
How much volume did US users generate on the offshore platform?
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane estimated US-based users sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through the platform between May 2025 and April 2026, using trade timing patterns and market selection to link activity to US participants.
