SpaceX Decline Triggers 597 Billion Won Outflow from Korean Space ETFs

SPCX-4.26%

SpaceX-linked exchange-traded funds in South Korea experienced outflows of nearly 600 billion won in approximately one month following the space company's listing, according to ETF Check data. Eight space-themed ETFs saw combined outflows of 597.2 billion won during this period, with Mirae Asset's TIGER US Space Tech recording the largest single outflow of 302.9 billion won. The fund exodus occurred as SpaceX shares declined from a post-IPO peak, falling from an intraday high of $225.64 on the 16th to $139.14 on the 13th after debuting at an IPO price of $135 on the 12th (local time). The outflows coincided with disappointed investor expectations after Mirae Asset Securities failed to secure IPO allocation for clients. Major Korean space ETFs collectively lost approximately 2 trillion won in net asset value over the same period.

TIGER US Space Tech Records 302.9 Billion Won Outflow After IPO Allocation Failure

Mirae Asset's TIGER US Space Tech ETF experienced the largest outflow among Korean space-themed funds, with 302.9 billion won exiting during the period. The outflow followed unmet investor expectations regarding SpaceX IPO share allocation through Mirae Asset Securities. Other significant outflows included KODEX US Aerospace (127.4 billion won), 1Q US Aerospace Tech (96.4 billion won), ACE US Space Tech Active (44.9 billion won), and SOL US Aerospace TOP10 (25.6 billion won).

Funds without SpaceX holdings also experienced withdrawals as investor sentiment toward the space sector weakened. TIGER K Defense & Space saw 38.3 billion won in outflows, while PLUS Aerospace recorded 22.6 billion won in exits. TIME Global Space Tech & Defense Active, which held only 2.75% in SpaceX, lost 44.1 billion won.

SpaceX Stock Falls to $139.14 Following Post-IPO Peak of $225.64

SpaceX entered the market on the 12th (local time) at an IPO price of $135 per share. The stock reached an intraday high of $225.64 on the 16th before reversing course. The shares declined to the $140 range near the IPO price level and closed at $139.14 per share on the 13th, despite inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 index.

Korean Space ETFs Report Performance Declines Tied to SpaceX Holdings

TIGER US Space Tech, which held 25.16% in SpaceX, declined 27.80% over the recent one-month period. ACE US Space Tech Active, with a 29.91% SpaceX allocation, fell 18.79%. Other ETFs with significant SpaceX exposure also recorded negative returns: SOL US Aerospace TOP10 (25.41% SpaceX weight, -19.41% return), KODEX US Aerospace (23.27% weight, -18.08% return), and 1Q US Aerospace Tech (14.58% weight, -11.11% return).

The combination of fund outflows and declining returns resulted in substantial net asset value reductions. Six space-related ETFs appeared among the top 100 products by NAV decrease, with combined NAV declining by 1.94 trillion won. TIGER US Space Tech recorded the largest NAV reduction of 1.14 trillion won. KODEX US Aerospace and 1Q US Aerospace Tech saw NAV decreases of 262.2 billion won and 182.5 billion won respectively.

Investment Banks Issue Target Prices Ranging from $63 to $800

Multiple global investment banks provided target prices above the current trading level. Morgan Stanley set a target of $300, Citigroup issued a $200 target, and JP Morgan established a $225 target price for SpaceX shares.

Raymond James issued the highest Wall Street target price of $800. The firm stated: "Just as railroads, power grids, and the internet transformed economic structures in the past, SpaceX is building a platform that will become core infrastructure for next-generation industries."

Morningstar presented a contrarian view, valuing SpaceX at approximately $780 billion—roughly half the current market valuation—with a fair value estimate of $63 per share. Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens stated that SpaceX is "seriously overvalued" and that "excessively high prices are being placed on unrealized future revenue sources and unproven option value."

FAQ

How much money flowed out of Korean space ETFs after SpaceX's listing?

Eight space-themed ETFs in South Korea experienced combined outflows of 597.2 billion won in approximately one month following SpaceX's market debut. TIGER US Space Tech recorded the largest single outflow at 302.9 billion won, followed by KODEX US Aerospace with 127.4 billion won and 1Q US Aerospace Tech with 96.4 billion won.

What was SpaceX's stock price movement after its IPO?

SpaceX debuted on the 12th (local time) at an IPO price of $135 per share. The stock reached an intraday peak of $225.64 on the 16th before declining. Shares fell back to near the IPO price level and closed at $139.14 on the 13th, despite being added to the NASDAQ 100 index.

What target prices have investment banks issued for SpaceX?

Global investment banks issued varying target prices for SpaceX. Raymond James provided the highest target at $800 per share, while Morgan Stanley set a target of $300, Citigroup issued $200, and JP Morgan established $225. Morningstar presented a lower valuation with a fair value estimate of $63 per share, stating the company is "seriously overvalued."

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