US Treasury analysts warned in a draft report that failure to monetize AI investments could trigger market shocks similar to the dot-com bubble, while JP Morgan forecasted global semiconductor stocks will hit record highs in H2 2026 citing supply constraints through 2028. The conflicting outlooks emerged as Samsung Electronics reported Q2 2026 preliminary operating profit of 89.4 trillion won with an 83% memory division margin. Hedge fund yen short positions surged to 138,000 contracts — the highest since June 2007 — as the yen fell to a 40-year low amid the Bank of Japan's slow tightening and the Takaichi cabinet's fiscal expansion. Upcoming earnings calls from TSMC, ASML, and other chipmakers through mid-month are viewed as critical tests of whether AI rally momentum driven by pricing power can sustain record valuations.
US Treasury Warns AI Bubble Risk as JP Morgan Forecasts Semiconductor Record Highs in H2 2026
US Treasury analysts included in a draft report a warning that AI market monetization failures could spread shocks across datacenters, private credit markets, and semiconductor manufacturers in a manner similar to the dot-com bubble collapse, according to sources. Morgan Stanley estimated global AI investment budgets from big tech firms at $805 billion for 2026 while recommending reduced semiconductor exposure, heightening market caution. JP Morgan countered that new AI chip manufacturing capacity will remain unavailable until 2028 and chronic supply shortages will support pricing power, predicting global semiconductor stocks will reach all-time highs in H2 2026. Analysts noted that record earnings from Micron and Samsung Electronics rely on price increases rather than volume growth — a late-cycle signal — making upcoming conference calls from major firms through mid-month a pivotal factor in determining the AI rally's direction.
Samsung Electronics Reports Q2 2026 Operating Profit of 89.4 Trillion Won with 83% Memory Margin
Samsung Electronics announced Q2 2026 preliminary revenue of 171 trillion won and operating profit of 89.4 trillion won, with sources indicating the figure could reach up to 106 trillion won excluding performance bonus provisions. The memory division's operating margin of approximately 83% surpassed Micron's 81%, marking an industry-leading level. Samsung solidified its position as a 'swing producer' — a key entity controlling global memory market supply and pricing — with monthly wafer production capacity of 650,000 to 700,000 units. The company became the first to mass-produce sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) HBM4 for NVIDIA's next-generation AI accelerators and delivered seventh-generation HBM4E samples ahead of competitors, maintaining a technological gap. Industry observers project Samsung could sustain quarterly operating profit above 100 trillion won in H2 and potentially exceed 140 trillion won per quarter in the following year, as memory production capacity from the three major manufacturers will not expand substantially until after 2028.
Hedge Fund Yen Short Positions Reach 138,000 Contracts, Highest Since June 2007
Bloomberg reported, citing US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, that hedge fund yen short positions reached 138,000 contracts — the largest since June 2007, 19 years ago — as the yen's value fell to a 40-year low. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 1% for the first time in 31 years and signaled potential further increases, yet markets remain dominated by concerns that the tightening pace lags behind inflation and exchange rate conditions in a 'behind the curve' monetary policy stance. Dollar strength bets reached approximately $40 billion (about 61 trillion won) — the highest since December 2015 — as newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated a hawkish stance, further pressuring the yen. Domestic concerns in Japan grew over unclear funding sources for the Takaichi cabinet's expansionary fiscal policies, with pessimistic forecasts suggesting the yen could weaken to 170 per dollar.
SpaceX Joins Nasdaq-100 on Local Time May 7 via Fast Entry System
SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq-100 index on local time May 7, with an estimated $27.5 billion (approximately 41.2 trillion won) in mechanical buying expected from global passive funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000. The inclusion marked the first application of Nasdaq's Fast Entry system introduced this year. SpaceX IPO'd at $135 per share on local time June 12, surged intraday to $225.64, then retreated to $147.11 following the announcement of a $20 billion corporate bond issuance plan, exhibiting extreme price volatility. Domestic space-themed ETFs recorded negative returns over the recent one-month period prior to the inclusion: TIGER US Space Tech fell 35.45%, ACE US Space Tech Active declined 22.60%, and KODEX US Aerospace dropped 20.04%. Industry analysts noted cautious views that the index inclusion effect may already be largely priced into the market, potentially limiting initial passive inflows below market expectations.
FAQ
What did JP Morgan forecast about semiconductor stocks in H2 2026?
JP Morgan predicted that global semiconductor stocks will reach all-time highs in H2 2026, citing chronic supply shortages and the unavailability of new AI chip manufacturing capacity until 2028, which will sustain pricing power for chipmakers.
What was Samsung Electronics' Q2 2026 operating profit and memory margin?
Samsung Electronics reported Q2 2026 preliminary operating profit of 89.4 trillion won (potentially up to 106 trillion won excluding bonus provisions) with a memory division operating margin of approximately 83%, surpassing Micron's 81% and marking an industry-leading level.
Why did hedge fund yen short positions reach a 19-year high?
Hedge fund yen short positions hit 138,000 contracts — the highest since June 2007 — because the yen fell to a 40-year low due to the Bank of Japan's slow tightening pace (raising rates to 1% for the first time in 31 years) and the Takaichi cabinet's expansionary fiscal policy, which markets view as 'behind the curve' relative to inflation and exchange rate conditions.
