bitcoindata21

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Taking a break to enjoy the summer, and watch England get knocked out on penalties again.
GL to all. See you soon.
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Nobody talks about the Chinese 10 year yield in Bitcoin circles. They should. Go back and look at every major Bitcoin run since inception. Same setup every time.
Chinese 10Y yield finds a floor, starts creeping higher, Bitcoin follows. Every. Single. Cycle. It's not random.
Chinese yields reflating means credit is expanding, risk appetite is coming back, money is moving. That money doesn't stay in bonds. Instead it bleeds into hard assets like Bitcoin.
Right now the Chinese 10 year yield is finding a bottom. When it turns up, so will Bitcoin.
BTC-0.3%
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With U.S manufacturing ISM at 52.7 we can see ETH/BTC once again lining up to pump.
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I'm not trying to be hyperbolic, but I want to put this out there, so I can look back and see if/how it played out.
Aiming for 30-40x from here till cycle end. There is a method behind the madness.
8x: stock price appreciation
1.5x: levered long and short (and puts/calls)
3x: buy low/sell high
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Depression and apathy. Market will keep going up until morale improves. My bags are thankful for people being so negative 🙏
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You will not even read this post.
You will not pass go, and collect £200.
You will like this because it fits your bias.
You will prove my point. Rekt.
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The monthly Supertrend remains undefeated and is still bullish on bitcoin.
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What will be the price of bitcoin in Q4 2026?
BTC-0.3%
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$OTHERS divided by GOLD: breaking out on monthly RSI, which was uber bullish the last few times.
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The ratio of TOTAL3ES (Total crypto market cap exluding btc, eth, stables) to BITCOIN:
On the verge of breaking out of a 5 year downward trend.
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Bitcoin. Keep it simple.
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Small caps vs the S&P500 have already broken out many months ago. This has always been bulish for bitcoin.
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I remember months after the 15k bitcoin lows in 2022, people didn't want to bullieve.
Price went to 25k in early 2023 and retraced to 20k...
- At that time people were coming at me, saying there is no liquidity for the market to go up, and that we had to wait for "QE".
- Some permabear guy named Ben was also telling people to wait for 2024. Legend has it he is still telling people to wait.
- Another by the name of Capo was pushing the idea of 10k very hard. He wasn't the only one.
- At 32k (+100% from the lows) a few months later, there were still calls for it being a relief rally. And that a
BTC-0.3%
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The U.S 3 month treasury yield is now below YoY CPI Inflation (negative real yields).
Every parabolic bitcoin bull run has happened when this was the case.
Real yields had been positive for 3 years, since early 2023.
BTC-0.3%
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Ethereum and altcoins can only outperform when the business cycle is hot. The signs are all there if you look, it's coming, like a giant tsunami.
Everyone waited 4 years for a bull market. Now that most retail have been wiped out or got bored... it will begin. Market makers have no mercy.
Don't believe me? Look at the long base. Now look at Silver, Gold, Nikkei, $IREN - and their performance after base breakouts.
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IREN1.68%
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Korean Exports are leading the way for the Global and U.S business cycle.
U.S manufacturing ISM will go higher.
Bitcoin will go higher.
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I see many are worried about yields and inflation going higher. This is a feature, not a bug, of bitcoin bull markets though.
On average, the U.S 10 year yields moves 1.50% higher before or during the bitcoin top.
1. Yields bottom
2. U.S ISM manufacturing bottoms
3. Both turn upward
4. Bitcoin bull market
*Even 2023-2024 is valid (though not drawn): Yields went from 3% to 5%... and we know what bitcoin did
**Yields above 5% could cause problems, so while we want some reflation, too much is not good for risk assets
BTC-0.3%
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In 2 weeks we will have another MONTHLY BLUE MOON (the second full moon in a single calendar month).
Apart from 2018 where there was a double occurrence, every other time led to parabolic upside in bitcoin.
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