Gate Daily (December 22): US Innovates Tax Relief for Encryption; Santiment Warns Bitcoin Community Panic Has Not Reached Bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) started the week with a short-term surge, currently reported at around $88,850 on December 22. U.S. lawmakers proposed tax breaks for small stablecoin payments and staking rewards. Santiment warns that the cryptocurrency market “is not yet at a level of panic sufficient to determine the bottom,” meaning prices may not have bottomed out yet.

Macroeconomic Events & Crypto Circle Hotspots

1. U.S. lawmakers have introduced a discussion draft that aims to alleviate the tax burden on ordinary Crypto Assets users by exempting capital gains tax on small stablecoin transactions and providing new deferral options for staking and mining rewards. This proposal, introduced by Ohio Congressman Max Miller and Nevada Congressman Steven Horsford, seeks to amend the Internal Revenue Code to reflect the increasing use of digital assets in the payment sector.

According to the draft, the proposal aims to “eliminate the small gains recognition resulting from consumers' daily use of regulated payment stablecoins for payments.” If the stablecoin is issued by a licensed issuer under the “GENIUS Act,” is pegged to the US dollar, and the trading price remains within a narrow range around 1 dollar, then users are not required to recognize gains or losses when the transaction amount does not exceed 200 dollars.

2. Santiment, a cryptocurrency market sentiment platform, founder Maksim Balashevich stated that cryptocurrency traders have not shown enough panic on social media to confirm that the market has bottomed out. He believes that Bitcoin could still drop to around $75,000. He said: “It looks very tempting, making people want to go further.”

He predicts that if the price of Bitcoin drops to that level, it will be about 14% lower than its current price. He explained that he is hesitant because he sees many people online optimistically believing that the downtrend will reverse in the short term, but he stated that this usually does not happen when a real market bottom is formed.

News Updates

1. The People's Bank of China has issued a one-time credit restoration policy to support credit reconstruction after the pandemic.

2. Michael Saylor releases another Bitcoin Tracker message, revealing increased holding data this week.

3. Data: Tokens such as H, XPL, and SOON will experience a large unlock this week, with H unlocking a value of approximately 14.8 million USD.

4. “Maji Brother” 10x leverage ZEC long position, holding value approximately 390,000 USD

5. Fed's Harker: Neutral interest rates may be higher than widely expected, and there may be data collection distortion issues with November inflation.

6, “Maji Dage” closed all long positions of BTC and HYPE 15 minutes ago, with a net loss of about 1.46 million USD for the week.

7. 10x Research: BTC miners and crypto companies performed poorly this week, and the market has yet to reverse its sluggish trend.

8. F2Pool co-founder Wang Chuan once lost 490 BTC after transferring 500 BTC to a suspicious address to test private key security.

9. Tether CEO confirmed that they are developing a mobile Crypto Assets wallet integrated with AI.

Market Trends

1. Latest news on Bitcoin: $BTC This week, it opened with a short-term surge, currently reported around 88,850 USD, with 45 million USD liquidated in the past 24 hours, mainly from short positions;

2. Technology stocks rebounded on December 19, driving the U.S. stock market to rise for two consecutive days, as investors showed a surge in buying on dips, seemingly warming up for the “Santa Claus rally.” The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively, with a weekly decline of less than 1%. The Nasdaq Index increased by 1.3%, with a weekly gain of 0.5%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared by 3%, with a weekly rise of 0.5%. Oracle surged by 4.6% due to TikTok's decision to sell its U.S. operations, with Oracle leading a group of buyers.

(Source: Gate)

3. In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 89,074.00 USDT, if it drops to around 87,700 USD, the total amount of long positions liquidation will exceed 60.72 million USD; if it rises to around 89,562 USD, the total amount of short positions liquidation will exceed 122 million USD. The liquidation amount for shorts is significantly higher than for longs, so it is recommended to reasonably control the leverage ratio to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflow was $790 million, outflow was $843 million, resulting in a net outflow of $53 million.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, contracts such as $ETH, $SOL, $DOGE, $RAVE, and $NIGHT have seen net outflows, indicating trading opportunities.

X KOL Selected Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Starting next week, we will enter the Christmas market, which is referred to in English as the 'Santa Claus rally.' This refers to the performance of the S&P 500 during the week after Christmas, specifically the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the following year. Based on results, there is a 79% chance that the Christmas rally will be upward, with the maximum decline during this week being 7.4% and an average increase of about 1.3%.”

“From historical experience, the Christmas rally is not just a simple seasonal statistical phenomenon, but more like a barometer of market risk appetite. If the market rises as expected from after Christmas to around New Year, it usually means that investors are still willing to allocate risk assets despite the lack of new macroeconomic stimulus. This confirms the risk appetite at the end of the year and lays the emotional foundation for asset pricing in the new year. Conversely, it often means that the risk appetite has not recovered, making the market more likely to face weakness or repeated fluctuations in January and even over a longer period.”

“From the perspective of system and seasonal factors, on one hand, after the tax-loss harvesting completed in mid-December, funds should flow back into the market. On the other hand, during the holiday period, the trading activity of institutions decreases and the trading volume reduces, which means that a small amount of buying can push the index upward while also suppressing short-term volatility. Additionally, the distribution of year-end bonuses and the passive allocation of funds from automatic deductions for retirement accounts (such as 401k) may also provide buying support for the market.”

Looking back at the data for Bitcoin, the turnover rate finally decreased over the weekend, which indicates that the trading volume of real users is indeed quite low. The usually high turnover rate is likely due to changes from quantitative or high-frequency short-term investors. The changes displayed over the weekend should reflect the true holders. However, next week we will enter the Christmas market, so overall trading volume and turnover rate are expected to decline.

“This Christmas market basically reflects the expectations for the first quarter of 2026. If, under the conditions of seasonal benefits, emotional vacuum, and gradually recovering liquidity, the market still fails to form an effective rise, it likely indicates that the current high interest rate environment is suppressing the economy, overshadowing the emotional boost brought about by the holiday factors.”

Today's Outlook

1. UK Q3 GDP final value (annualized), previous value was 1.3%

2. UK's current account for the third quarter (billion pounds), previous value was -28.9

3. UK third quarter GDP final value (quarterly), previous value was 0.1%

4. The UK December CBI Retail Sales Expectations Index, previous value -24.

5. The UK December CBI industrial order expectations balance, previous value was -37.