Is the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Coming to an End? Ran Neuner Points to a Shift in Liquidity

As crypto markets move deeper into 2026, uncertainty is once again shaping investor sentiment. That theme dominated a recent discussion featuring Ran Neuner, founder of Crypto Banter, where the focus turned to what may actually drive the next major move in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Rather than offering price targets, Neuner challenged one of crypto’s most entrenched ideas: the four-year Bitcoin cycle tied to halving events.

Is the Four-Year Cycle Still Relevant? Neuner argued that Bitcoin’s halving was never the true engine behind major bull runs. In his view, liquidity—not supply shocks—has always been the decisive factor. “The four-year cycle was always dead. We’ve been trading a liquidity cycle,” Neuner said. He explained that past bull markets aligned more closely with periods of abundant global liquidity and favorable macroeconomic conditions than with the halving itself. As Bitcoin’s market has grown, the halving’s impact on supply has become increasingly marginal, reducing its influence on price dynamics.

Bitcoin Approaches a Critical Juncture Neuner compared today’s setup to 2021, when Bitcoin suffered a sharp drop and then moved sideways for months before making a decisive move. He believes Bitcoin is facing a similar crossroads now. A strong rebound could put the broader uptrend back on track, while failure to do so might send prices back toward long-term support levels. Either way, the next move is likely to set the tone for the months ahead.

Macro Shocks Remain the Biggest Threat One of the key warnings from the discussion was how quickly crypto can flip into risk-off mode during broader market stress. Issues such as doubts about the Federal Reserve’s credibility, political pressure, or sudden tariff concerns could rapidly undermine investor confidence. “We’re sound money until we’re not—and then it’s risk-off,” Neuner said. Historically, when panic hits, Bitcoin has often fallen alongside equities, rather than acting as a safe haven.

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: A Useful Signal Neuner also shared a simple framework for watching Bitcoin and Ethereum together: When Bitcoin is strong and breaking higher, Ethereum typically outperforms.When Bitcoin weakens or stalls, BTC tends to hold up more defensively. The host added that Ethereum could still benefit from long-term trends such as tokenization, stablecoins, and on-chain settlement, making ETH strength a potential signal that confidence is returning to the broader ecosystem.

A New Kind of Crypto Buyer The conversation also highlighted a shift in market participation. ETF products are bringing in institutions and high-net-worth investors who view crypto as a portfolio allocation, not a short-term trade. This change could mean fewer extreme hype-driven cycles, but steadier demand over time—and a very different shape for the next bull market. If Neuner is right, the crypto market may be moving away from a calendar-driven four-year cycle toward one governed by liquidity flows, macro conditions, and institutional behavior.

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