Kalshi takes its first enforcement action against MrBeast affiliates and former gubernatorial candidate

A new market has been added to the prediction platform: Will the price of crude oil break through the historical high of $147.27 before the end of March?

On March 10th, a certain prediction platform added a market forecast that the price of crude oil could break the all-time high of $147.27 before the end of the month, with a current probability of 11%. This price was reached in 2008, driven by surging demand in emerging markets and supply tightening.

Polymarket Data: Market bets that the Federal Reserve has an 80% chance of cutting interest rates in September

Gate News Report, March 10 — According to the latest data from Polymarket, there are significant differences in market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at different times this year. Among them, the probability of a rate cut in September is the highest at 80%; July has a 59% chance; June has a 52% chance; April has a 16% chance; and March has only a 1% chance. Currently, the trading volume of this prediction market has exceeded $1.6 million.

Kalshi Partners With XP to Launch Prediction Markets in Brazil

Customers of Clear, a brand of the XP Group, who hold an international investment account, will be able to participate in regulated prediction markets. XP is the first company to bring regulated prediction markets outside the U.S., with a focus on financial and economic events. Kalshi Partners

Polymarket Data: The probability of BTC dropping to $65,000 and rising to $75,000 in March is both 57%

Gate News Report, March 10 — According to the latest data from Polymarket, market bets on the BTC price trend in March are diverging: a 57% chance of dropping to $65,000, and a 57% chance of rising to $75,000; a 28% chance of dropping to $60,000, and a 28% chance of rising to $80,000. As of now, the trading volume in this prediction market has exceeded $28.27 million.

Iran attacks Israel's Haifa oil refinery and launches a new round of missiles, with market forecasts of a 34% chance of a ceasefire by the end of the month.

Gate News Report, March 10, Iran's Army announced that in retaliation for attacks on Iranian oil facilities, its drones attacked a refinery and fuel storage facilities in Haifa, Israel. Additionally, Iran has launched a new round of missile strikes against Israel. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by the end of this month is now reported at 34%.

Cboe launches S&P 500 Index Partial Return Forecast Market Contract, reforming event trading models

Cboe Global Markets will launch a new prediction market contract linked to the S&P 500 Index, allowing traders to earn a portion of the gains based on prediction accuracy. This move aims to attract more retail investors. It marks an increased focus on event-driven financial products and is expected to boost retail trading activity, becoming an emerging investment trend.