Bitcoin reached $76,000 intraday on March 16, marking nearly a 20% increase since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, outperforming gold and the S&P 500. Analysts analyze three aspects—geopolitical cooling, risk-hedging attribute shift, and options Gamma magnetism—to break down the driving forces behind this rally, while warning that this week’s FOMC meeting is the biggest uncertainty.
(Background: Deep analysis of Dario: If Trump loses control of the Hormuz Strait, U.S. hegemony will quickly collapse)
(Additional context: Trump admits Iran’s retaliation exceeds expectations, hinting at further strikes on Halek Island; Europe refuses to escort, Hormuz alliance faces changes)
Table of Contents
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- Three main drivers of upward momentum: geopolitical cooling, risk-hedging establishment, options Gamma magnetism
- March 27 expiry structure shift: $75,000 call significantly outweighs put
- FOMC as the biggest uncertainty, historically BTC has fallen after seven rate decisions
Bitcoin surged to $76,000 intraday on March 16, after eight consecutive bullish days, hitting a six-week high, with a 24-hour gain of nearly 4%. This level approaches a key resistance zone since late January. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war on February 28, Bitcoin has risen nearly 20%, while gold has fallen about 3% and the S&P 500 declined roughly 2%, outperforming almost all mainstream assets.
In terms of liquidation data, according to Coinglass, total open interest liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $610 million, with short liquidations at $485 million. Data from Alternative.me shows market sentiment has shifted from “extreme panic” to “panic,” with the crypto fear and greed index rising to 28 today (from 23 “extreme panic” yesterday).
On March 16, all three major US stock indices closed higher. The Dow rose 387.94 points to 46,946, up 0.83%; the S&P 500 increased 1.01% to 6,699; Nasdaq gained 1.22% to 22,374. The main catalyst for improved sentiment was geopolitical risk easing—US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the US is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Hormuz Strait, the first such passage since the conflict escalated.
WTI crude oil futures traded between $92.93 and $94.17 per barrel intraday, with Brent opening at $105.26. Previously, markets feared a blockade of the Strait would cut off about 20% of global oil shipments, pushing prices to a three-year high. As expectations of de-escalation grew, oil prices were suppressed.
Dragged down by a strengthening dollar, spot gold retreated to around $5,010 per ounce, showing a clear pullback from recent highs. Silver also adjusted in tandem with precious metals. The divergence between gold and Bitcoin is noteworthy—since the war began, both have been considered safe-haven assets, but Bitcoin’s rally has gradually surpassed gold.
Three Main Drivers of Upward Momentum: Geopolitical Cooling, Risk-Hedging Establishment, Options Gamma Magnetism
The three core reasons driving Bitcoin higher are:
First, geopolitical risk easing boosts risk appetite. The Hormuz Strait crisis has been the biggest market suppressor over the past three weeks. High oil prices imply rising inflation expectations, which are unfavorable for liquidity-sensitive assets. As signals of reopening the strait emerge, markets begin to reprice.
Second, Bitcoin is gradually establishing itself as a non-dollar safe-haven asset. In this conflict, Bitcoin did not decline along with stocks—in fact, it strengthened against them. Forbes reports that since the war started, Bitcoin has outperformed gold, stocks, and all major safe assets. This contrasts sharply with its behavior at the start of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, where it followed stocks downward. Market perception of Bitcoin’s safe-haven role is shifting.
Third, options structure is creating a magnet effect at $75,000. Crypto analyst Murphy notes that options expiring on March 20 near the $74,000 strike have about $180 million in long Gamma open interest, which will pressure volatility and tend to keep prices oscillating around that zone, forming a short-term resistance.
March 27 Expiry Structure Shift: $75,000 Call Significantly Outweighs Put
After March 20, the expiry structure for March 27 shows a clear shift. The $75,000 strike has an open interest of 9,685 BTC calls, while puts are only 2,711, with calls dominating. Notably, from February 28 to March 14, net premiums for calls at this strike surged from $5.8 million to $19.8 million, even as Bitcoin remained in the $66,000–$68,000 range, indicating early bullish positioning at lower levels.
From a Gamma risk perspective, there is about -$2.56 billion in short Gamma near the $75,000 strike. In a short Gamma environment, as prices approach this level, market makers’ Delta changes rapidly, forcing continuous hedging—buying as prices rise—creating a classic “Gamma magnet” effect.
Above $80,000, there is a $420 million long Gamma open interest, which will reverse hedging flows and suppress volatility, acting as a strong resistance. Below $65,000–$67,000, $390 million in long Gamma provides some buffer, but the open interest is weaker than at $75,000 and $80,000, making it a buffer zone rather than a strong support.
FOMC as the Biggest Uncertainty, Historically BTC Has Fallen After Seven Rate Decisions
This week’s Federal Reserve meeting presents a dilemma, potentially the most direct pressure point for Bitcoin recently. CME FedWatch shows over 99% probability of holding rates steady (3.50%–3.75%).
Historically, Bitcoin has declined after seven out of eight FOMC meetings since 2025, with an average drop of 14%, only briefly rising after the decision. In January 2026, the Fed maintained rates as expected, and Bitcoin then fell from $90,400, breaking below $60,000 before rebounding.
This time, the policy environment is more complex. Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation fears; February’s non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly weak, signaling labor market pressure. The simultaneous conflicting signals limit monetary policy maneuvering.
For Fed Chair Powell, this will be his penultimate meeting before his term ends in May. The next rate move may only occur after Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, officially takes over as Fed Chair. Additionally, political pressures are intense—last week, a federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice’s subpoena against the Fed, but prosecutors announced an appeal, potentially complicating Warsh’s confirmation process. Powell’s term ends in May, but court documents reveal he has stated he cannot resign amid ongoing criminal investigations.
For Bitcoin, if Powell signals confidence in inflation control or hints at a rate cut within the year, it would be bullish; but if he reiterates hawkish stances or is vague due to political pressures, the risk of short-term pullback will rise significantly.
