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Mitsubishi UFJ Warns Against Over-Interpreting Fed Minutes; July Rate-Hike Odds Priced Too High at 30%

2026-07-08 09:57:16

Derek Halpenny from Mitsubishi UFJ advised against over-reading details in the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes set to be released tonight (July 8), citing significantly changed market conditions since early June. The dot plot, likely submitted before June 12, would not show nine members supporting a rate hike if conducted today, he noted. Current overnight index swaps price July 29 rate-hike odds at near 30%, which appears too high given weakening labor data. For the period through March 2027, markets price in nearly 40 basis points of rate hikes, though Halpenny believes rate cuts are more likely by then.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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