1. Market Sentiment: End of Washout, Entering "Weekend Sideways" Mode
- As seen on the 15-minute chart (Image 2), there was a sharp fluctuation before and after the data release, with prices initially surging to 3144, then falling to 3055, and now rebounding to 3084. This "up and down pin" behavior has cleared most high-leverage positions.
- Volume Shrinking: As market enthusiasm wanes, trading volume has significantly decreased. Candlesticks are beginning to move closer to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a brief consensus between bulls and bears around 3080.
- Conclusion: Today's market will mainly fluctuate sideways, with the volatility range possibly narrowing to between 3050-3120.
2. Is there a chance for altcoins to rise over the weekend?
Opportunities exist, but they are "selective rebounds" rather than a broad rally.
- ETH Resistance: Currently, ETH is performing relatively weaker than BTC (which is struggling around 90,000). ETH needs to stabilize above 3100 to boost altcoin enthusiasm.
- Capital Flow: Negative data has been initially digested by the market. If U.S. bond yields stabilize over the weekend, remaining funds may seek high-volatility altcoins (such as SOL ecosystem or strong new narrative coins) for short-term speculation.
- Prediction: If ETH can hold above 3080 on Saturday without dropping below, there may be localized altcoin rallies over the weekend.
3. Today's Safe Profit-Taking Strategy
In a sideways market, the safest approach is "not touching the middle, only sweeping the sides":
Operational reference points (ETH):
- Safe Buy Zone (Long): 3030 - 3055. This is the recent pin support and a strong 4-hour support zone. If the price retraces here without breaking below, it’s a low-risk opportunity to go long.
- Safe Sell/Take Profit Zone (Short/Exit): 3120 - 3145. Without new major positive news, there will be strong selling pressure here.
- Stop-Loss Setting: Strictly adhere to the 3000 level. If the closing price falls below 3000, the market may shift from sideways to downward correction, requiring decisive stop-loss.
Pitfall Avoidance Guide:
1. Do not open positions at 3080-3090 current price: this is the central axis of the sideways range, with poor risk-reward ratio.
2. Abandon big breakout fantasies: weekends usually lack large capital inflows, making a unilateral breakout unlikely. It’s recommended to take profits when gains reach 1%-2%.
One-sentence Summary:
Today is "garbage picking time": buy low around 3050, reduce positions around 3120. Focus on whether altcoins can independently strengthen over the weekend; if ETH holds above 3100, consider small positions in recent strong altcoins.
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