Crypto Macro News and Global Policy Updates

Gate News message, April 1, Europe’s major stock indexes opened significantly higher today. The German DAX30 index (Germany’s benchmark stock market index) rose 3.09%, the European STOXX 50 index (eurozone blue-chip index) rose 2.74%, the French CAC40 index (France’s benchmark stock market index) rose 2.38%, and the UK FTSE 100 index (the UK’s benchmark stock market index) rose 1.64%.

Bitcoin fell 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking its worst performance since 2018. The decline was mainly driven by outflows from spot ETF fund flows and high inflation. Despite the near-term drop, analysts say long-term conviction in Bitcoin has not changed, and it’s important to watch shifts in the macro environment and incoming capital flows.

Gate News update, April 1, according to data, WTI crude oil (U.S. benchmark) fell below $98 per barrel, down 3.78% during the day; Brent crude oil (European benchmark) fell 3.3%.

Analyst Joseph Chai pointed out that bullish momentum in COMEX gold futures could resume. The gold price has been rising for three consecutive days and is expected to test the resistance level of $4,800 per ounce, but downward pressure from the 20-day and 50-day moving averages is forming resistance. At present, the initial support level is $4,400 per ounce.

Even though the legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC may end in 2025, the XRP price is still 64% below its all-time high. ETF inflows and policy support provide support, but the market remains cautious about XRP’s outlook. Analysts say the price is constrained by the overall economic environment, and investors need to pay attention to macro factors and Ripple’s development.

In the first quarter of 2026, the price of Bitcoin fell 23.8%, marking its worst performance since 2018. Starting the year, the price dropped from $87,508 to $66,619, for a cumulative loss of 41.6%. Analysts believe that the main reasons include macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In addition, ETF outflows have further increased pressure. Despite near-term difficulties, long-term confidence remains solid, and institutional participation trends look positive. The market is watching how developments in the Middle East could affect Bitcoin and overall cryptocurrency market sentiment.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has dropped by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

As geopolitical tensions escalate, investors are watching how Bitcoin may perform in a potential Iran war. Historical data shows that market reactions are often limited at the beginning of wars, but Bitcoin typically behaves like a high-risk asset and is susceptible to macroeconomic factors. In the short term, it may fall or stabilize, so investors need to monitor relevant economic indicators and the course of the conflict.

March Brent crude oil futures rose more than 60%, posting the largest monthly gain since 1988, as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a supply disruption. Analysts warned that oil prices could reach $200, and the market responded with renewed activity. Investors need to watch geopolitical developments and energy supply conditions.

Trump said the United States could end its war with Iran within two to three weeks, with the goal of stopping its nuclear weapons development. It has not yet been determined whether the strait will be reopened. Brent crude oil prices hit a record high, tightening energy supplies and further increasing market attention. Trump handed responsibility for restarting the strait to other countries and plans to explain the Iran issue in a nationwide address. The market is taking a cautious view of how events will unfold.

Goldman Sachs analysts noted that although market volatility in interest rates has been severe since the war in Israel and Iran, the likelihood of rate hikes this year is low. Current supply shocks are limited, and the risk of inflation spillover is smaller. Monetary policy has also reduced the probability of further rate hikes.

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that since the Iran war, the U.S. federal funds rate has been highly volatile, but the likelihood of rate hikes in 2026 remains low. Currently, supply shocks are relatively small, the risk of inflation spillover is low, and the Federal Reserve will not tighten policy solely due to an oil shock.

Gate News message: On April 1, market data showed that Brent crude oil (one of the international crude benchmarks) fell below $101 per barrel, with a intraday drop of 1.17%; WTI crude oil (the U.S. crude benchmark) is currently down 0.9%.

Tokyo-listed company Metaplanet successfully raised $255 million and plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 100,000 BTC. By financing through issuing preferred shares and warrants, Metaplanet aims to reduce financial risk and demonstrate confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. As the corporate Bitcoin-holding trend accelerates, it is expected to boost market activity and drive up the Bitcoin price in the future.

ISO 20022 is changing the global financial payments system, improving payment processing efficiency. In 2025, SWIFT will retire traditional MT messages, and financial institutions will need to fully adopt ISO 20022 to avoid transaction delays and increased costs. This standard is not only a compliance requirement, but also an opportunity to modernize operations—driving organizations to fully upgrade and deeply redesign.

Bitcoin's volatility persists amid escalating war tensions with Iran, spiking nearly to $69,000 following speculation about President Trump's upcoming speech addressing the situation. Contradictory statements regarding the war's continuation add to market uncertainty.

The New Hampshire State Department of Business and Financial Management will issue $100 million in bitcoin-backed municipal bonds, which have been rated “Ba2” by Moody’s. This innovative financial product will be repaid through the proceeds from the monetization of bitcoin, and it does not involve any state government public funds or taxing authority; the risk is borne by investors. This marks a major step for bitcoin into the traditional financial system.

When responding to the potential threats that quantum computing could pose to cryptocurrencies, CZ emphasized that there’s no need to panic. Most cryptocurrencies can defend against the threat through upgrades, but coordinating upgrades across decentralized networks is likely to spark controversy. He warned that projects that have already stopped being maintained are difficult to upgrade and may disappear, while also urging users to migrate to quantum-resistant wallets to protect their assets. In particular, for the Bitcoin held by Satoshi Nakamoto, if quantum computing matures, it may need to be locked up or destroyed to prevent attacks. Overall, he believes that cryptocurrency is generally easier to secure than to crack.

Brent crude oil surged more than 60% in March, setting the highest record since 1988, as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a disruption in global supply. Gasoline prices have risen sharply, leaving consumers reeling. Analysts warn that if the situation continues, oil prices could reach $150 to $200 per barrel. In the future, there are three solution paths that will affect the direction of global markets.

The European Central Bank, in its latest DeFi report, used data from DeFiLlama for the first time, indicating that regulators are paying close attention to decentralized finance. The report sheds light on the problem of concentrated governance power, which is of great significance for policy-making. Improving DeFiLlama’s credibility can help promote cooperation between regulators and DeFi platforms. In the future, DeFi may face stricter compliance requirements, while also bringing governance challenges.