Bitcoin's "Realized Market Cap" firmly holds at $1.1 trillion! Analyst: The 2026 market outlook is worth looking forward to

Despite Bitcoin experiencing a decline of over 30% in the past 10 weeks, causing concern among many investors, on-chain data shows that the spark of a bullish trend still seems to be alive.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s “Realized Cap” currently remains firmly at a historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale withdrawal of funds from the market, and suggesting that the bull market structure remains solid.

Unlike the commonly watched “Market Cap” (current price x total circulating supply), this on-chain indicator is more valuable for reference. “Realized Cap” is calculated by summing the last on-chain transaction price of each Bitcoin, removing the influence of short-term speculation, and reflecting the “actual cost basis” invested by investors and the “real fund inflow” situation.

In other words, when the total market value fluctuates wildly with price swings, the Realized Cap remains high and stable, indicating that holders are reluctant to sell and that there has been no large-scale loss realization.

Based on data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, even when Bitcoin plunged more than 30% from its October all-time high, the “Realized Cap” not only did not fall but continued to rise during the correction period, only recently stabilizing around $1.125 trillion.

This trend is reminiscent of the “tariff panic” outbreak in April this year. At that time, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $76,000, but on-chain fund levels did not retreat, and the price rebounded strongly to new highs.

In contrast, during the 2022 bear market, as prices collapsed, investor confidence shattered, and many capitulated, causing the Realized Cap to decline from $470 billion to $385 billion. However, the current market does not show such panic-driven “mass exodus” or “collective surrender” behavior.

Therefore, analysts are beginning to question the so-called “4-year cycle” theory that is revered in the crypto world.

“4-Year Cycle” Narrative Shaken, Surprises in 2026?

Asset management firm Bitwise Europe Research Director Andre Dragosch believes that Bitcoin is very likely to break free from the “4-year cycle” constraints and experience an unexpected surge in 2026.

He explains that against the backdrop of a resilient global economy, continued rate cuts by major central banks, a steepening yield curve, and expanding overall liquidity, such an environment often weakens the US dollar, and historical experience shows that a “weak dollar” is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

In my view, Bitcoin’s current price is seriously undervalued relative to the current macroeconomic environment, comparable to the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic and the market panic triggered by the FTX collapse. But now, the US shows no signs of recession, and instead, signals of renewed growth can be seen.

_ Disclaimer: This article is for market information only. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. They do not represent the objective views and positions of BlockCast. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions. The author and BlockCast are not responsible for any direct or indirect losses resulting from investor transactions. _

Tags: 2026GlassnodeRealized CapAnalysisCryptoMarket CapPriceInvestmentBitcoinMarket Trend