Greeks.live Warns Against Reading Options Signals Before Expiry

Crypto options analytics platform Greeks.live has warned traders against relying on short-term options data. As a clear market signal ahead of the major options expiry scheduled for December 26. Analyst Adam said unusual trading activity is largely driven by position rollovers, not directional conviction. More than half of the total open interest across crypto options markets is set to expire this Friday. As a result, rollover trades have become the dominant source of volume, creating noise in commonly tracked indicators.

Rollover Activity Now Drives Most Volume

According to Greeks.live researchers, institutional traders are actively rolling positions forward to manage expiry risk. This behavior tends to inflate volume and skew flow data in the days leading up to settlement. As a result, options metrics that typically reflect sentiment can become misleading.

Analysts noted that recent fluctuations in block trade data should not be interpreted as firm bullish or bearish signals. The platform stressed that expiry-related positioning often masks real market intent. In this environment, price expectations derived from options flow may fail to reflect actual outlooks.

Put Block Trades Not a Bearish Signal

On December 25, block trades in put options accounted for roughly 30% of total options flow. At first glance, such a high proportion could suggest growing downside bets. However, Greeks.live explained that this interpretation would be incorrect. Many of these trades involved deep in-the-money or deep out-of-the-money contracts. Traders commonly use these positions for hedging or restructuring exposure rather than expressing a directional view. Researchers emphasized that large put volumes during expiry windows do not necessarily signal bearish positioning. Instead, they often reflect mechanical adjustments as contracts approach settlement.

Institutions Offload Positions Ahead of Expiry

With a large portion of contracts nearing expiration, institutions typically reduce risk early. This often involves closing or rolling positions days before the actual expiry date. During this process, some traders offload option contracts at discounted prices. Greeks.live noted that this can create unusually cheap pricing in short-dated options, especially those close to expiry. Analysts added that recent sessions have shown noticeable negative slippage. In some cases, traders using advanced execution strategies were able to secure more favorable pricing than standard order flow would suggest.

Signal Noise Peaks Near Settlement

Greeks.live cautioned that the next few days are likely to remain volatile in terms of options data. Even if spot prices stay relatively stable. The overlap of annual expiry, holiday-thinned liquidity and institutional rollovers amplifies distortions. Because of this, the platform advised traders to avoid using raw options flow as a standalone trading signal until after the settlement passes. Instead, broader context and post-expiry positioning should offer clearer insight. In summary, the firm views current options activity as technical rather than directional. As December’s expiry approaches, Greeks.live recommends patience. Once the contracts are clear, options data may again provide more reliable signals for market positioning.