Monero (XMR) may open notable disbursement opportunities for late-stage bullish investors if the Q4/2025 trend scenario repeats. Along with the overall altcoin market rally, the “Santa rally” wave has helped XMR surge approximately 7%, from around $432 to above $460. This recovery momentum is supported by a slight decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance, creating a “breathing space” for altcoins to regain momentum.
However, behind this impressive rally remain potential risks. Liquidity is still thin, and trading volume remains low, making XMR’s upward movement vulnerable—especially if these conditions persist into the early new year.
Nevertheless, in this context, XMR could still become an attractive entry point for investors seeking short-term profits.
Will XMR fall back to the $400–420 support zone?
The $400–420 USD price zone (marked in white) previously set a peak in May and served as a key resistance area throughout the second half of 2025 before being officially broken in mid-December.
Therefore, maintaining this area as a new support zone would be crucial, potentially providing a foundation for the next upward wave. Notably, this price zone coincides with the 50-day (MA) moving average—an important technical indicator.
Throughout Q4, XMR’s price repeatedly rebounded each time it retreated to test the 50-day (white line) moving average. Therefore, if this price behavior pattern continues and XMR revisits the moving average, it could be seen as a new buying opportunity.
Source: TradingViewHowever, currently, the MACD indicator is approaching a potential bearish cross— a signal that could trigger a short-term correction. This scenario increases the likelihood of XMR turning downward toward the moving average zone. Past bearish crosses in October, November, and December all ended with price cooling off at the 50-day MA.
This development further supports the accumulation scenario above and indicates that chasing buyers should be more patient. In a positive scenario, XMR’s immediate target is around $470, representing a potential gain of about 15% from the current support zone.
Conversely, if the price breaks below and sustains under the 50-day MA, the entire bullish thesis will be invalidated.
No signs of an overheated market yet
The weakening sentiment in the overall market could pressure XMR into a correction in early 2026. However, at present, this risk is not yet clearly reflected in the futures market.
Data shows that retail investors’ leverage participation in XMR remains limited. The lack of excessive euphoria indicates the market remains relatively healthy and not overheated.
Source: CryptoQuantIn the past, periods of strong retail inflows have often been followed by significant corrections.
Nonetheless, current market sentiment is not yet strong enough to trigger a sustainable new bullish trend for XMR. In fact, a cautious mood still dominates during the Christmas week. If this sentiment gradually shifts toward a more positive outlook, XMR’s recovery momentum could continue to strengthen in the near future.
Source: SantimentSN_Nour
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