3 gold market signals indicate that Bitcoin price may be approaching a bottom

Gold prices have experienced a slight correction in the short term after a strong rally to record highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown underperformance during what is considered its strongest growth quarter, sparking ongoing comparisons between these two assets.

Although Bitcoin is weakening, analysts point to a series of macro, statistical, and technical signals from the gold market indicating that BTC may be approaching a bottom and preparing for a new growth cycle.

The 2020 Scenario Repeats: Gold and Silver Lead Before Bitcoin

On a macro level, analysts generally agree that gold and silver tend to peak before Bitcoin breaks out afterward. An expert illustrated this model in a social media post on X.

Following the market shock in March 2020, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) injected large amounts of liquidity into the financial system, initially flowing into safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

Specifically, gold prices surged from around $1,450 to $2,075 in August 2020, while silver increased from $12 to $29. During the same period, Bitcoin hovered around $9,000–$12,000 for five months, according to BullTheory analysis.

“This was also the period after a major liquidation caused by COVID-19 in March 2020,” the article states.

When the precious metals peaked in August 2020, capital began shifting toward risk assets, driving Bitcoin sharply higher from $12,000 to $64,800 in May 2021, a 5.5x increase. Additionally, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization grew eightfold.

Currently, gold has set a record high near $4,550, and silver has risen to about $80. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mostly trades sideways, repeating a pattern seen in mid-2020. BullTheory adds:

“We just experienced a major liquidation on 10/10, similar to March 2020. And once again, Bitcoin moved slowly for months afterward.”

According to the expert, the liquidity boost from the Fed was the main driver in 2020. Notably, many new catalysts are emerging in 2026.

These include: new liquidity injections, expectations of interest rate cuts, the potential exemption of SLR for banks, clearer regulations on cryptocurrencies, the possibility of dividend payments under the Trump administration, expanding spot ETF access, making it easier for large asset managers to participate, and Fed leaders showing a more crypto-friendly stance.

“Last cycle, Bitcoin mainly grew due to liquidity factors. This time, liquidity combined with market structure is converging. The current environment is very similar to before, but with more ‘fuel’ to drive it. The fact that gold and silver rose first is not a negative sign for cryptocurrencies. Historically, this has always been an early indicator. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin and the crypto market will not lead but only break out after the precious metals pause. Therefore, the current sideways movement of BTC is not the start of a downtrend, but a lull before the storm,” BullTheory states.

Divergent Statistical Signals: Forecasting a New Uptrend for Cryptocurrencies

Another important signal comes from the correlation between Bitcoin, gold, and stocks. PlanB recognizes that Bitcoin is clearly decoupling from its historical correlation with both gold and equities. This decoupling previously occurred when Bitcoin was below $1,000, before it grew more than tenfold.

“This has happened before, when BTC was under $1,000, leading to a 10x increase,” PlanB writes.

However, the expert also notes that markets are always evolving, and relationships between asset classes can change, so this cycle may not repeat past results.

GOLD/BTC Ratio: A Market Bottom Indicator

From a technical perspective, the BTC/GOLD ratio also signals an important development. Macro strategist Gert van Lagen points out that the RSI of this ratio is hitting the main downtrend line for the fifth time in history.

In previous cycles, each time this occurred, it coincided with major market bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, after which Bitcoin regained strength relative to gold and formed higher lows. If this pattern repeats, the current environment could signal a similar turning point.

In summary, if historical, statistical, and technical models remain valid, the current decoupling between Bitcoin and gold may only be a transitional phase, opening new growth opportunities for Bitcoin as precious metals pause and investor risk appetite returns.