U.S. January CPI Data Released, Showing Further Easing of Inflation, Providing More Flexibility for the Federal Reserve’s Future Monetary Policy
(Previous context: JPMorgan calls for selling 2-year U.S. Treasuries: Even with Waller becoming Fed Chair, significant rate cuts are unlikely, while Einhorn bets on “more cuts”)
(Additional background: U.S. January non-farm employment “surprisingly strong”! Market increases bets on a Fed rate cut in July, Bitcoin breaks $68,000, Ethereum surges past $2,000)
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the latest January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30 a.m. on February 13, 2026 (Eastern Time). This highly anticipated inflation report shows that overall inflation in the U.S. has further slowed, providing the Federal Reserve (Fed) with more flexibility for future monetary policy.
Core Inflation Slightly Eases to 2.5%
The data shows that the U.S. January CPI increased by 2.4% year-over-year, significantly down from 2.7% in December and below market expectations of 2.5%. This is the lowest level since May 2025. The seasonally adjusted monthly increase was only 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%.
Excluding food and energy, the core CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year, slightly down from 2.6% in the previous month, with a monthly increase of 0.3%. Although core inflation remains somewhat sticky, the overall trend is moving closer to the Fed’s 2% long-term target.
Market Reaction and Federal Reserve Outlook
Following the data release, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that although the market currently expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in March and April, the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts and lowering by 25 basis points at the June FOMC meeting has risen to 51%, reflecting a positive market response to this CPI data.
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