This Week's Macro Outlook: Fed Minutes and PCE Data Release, Supreme Court May Issue Ruling on Trump's Tariffs

BlockBeats News, February 16 — The global markets will enter a “data bombardment” week this week. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting at 3:00 AM on Thursday, with markets looking for more clues about the interest rate path in 2026; on Friday at 9:30 PM, the US Q4 GDP preliminary estimate and core PCE price index will be released, becoming focal points. As the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, if the PCE reading exceeds expectations, it could influence the pace of policy easing within the year.

On the central bank front, multiple Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively, the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish meeting minutes, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its rate decision. Markets generally expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold steady, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may emphasize upside inflation risks.

In terms of asset performance, gold prices slightly declined on Monday; reports suggest OPEC+ may resume production increases in April; the US dollar’s movement remains a key variable. If it does not hit new lows, it may maintain relative strength amid upcoming tariff rulings. Meanwhile, US Treasury demand is heating up, potentially triggering a new round of asset reallocation.

Major events include the U.S. Supreme Court releasing opinions on February 20, including a ruling on Trump’s “Day of Liberation” tariff policy. An unfavorable ruling could significantly impact related tariffs and influence global trade and market sentiment.

On the corporate side, earnings season is nearing its end. Walmart will announce its Q4 fiscal year results, with key focus on e-commerce growth, AI applications, and tariff impacts. Its guidance could significantly influence retail and overall market sentiment.