Bitunix Analyst: Easing of interest rate cut expectations, BTC shifts to range-bound liquidity game

BlockBeats News, February 27 — Market expectations for Fed Chair nominee Waller to “cut interest rates immediately upon taking office” have quickly cooled. The IMF forecasts U.S. economic growth this year to rise to 2.4%, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4%, and inflation gradually easing. There may be only one 25 basis point rate cut in the next year. Interest rate futures show that the first rate cut has been pushed back from June to July. The meeting minutes also reveal that some officials are open to raising interest rates again, with a slightly hawkish shift in policy stance.

Meanwhile, the 30-year U.S. mortgage rate has fallen back to 5.98%, the first time below 6% since 2022. While this helps improve housing affordability, market expectations for significant easing have clearly diminished amid resilient economic data. The macro focus has shifted from “when to cut rates” to “how long high interest rates will last.”

In the crypto market, there is a clear accumulation of short positions above the 69,000–70,500 region for BTC, while the 66,000–66,500 zone provides strong support for long positions. The current price is oscillating around the mid-range, exhibiting a typical liquidity tug-of-war structure in the short term.