March 4 News: Bitcoin (BTC) prices rebounded after a sharp decline over the weekend, briefly approaching the $70,000 mark, with midday trading in Hong Kong around $68,000. Earlier, due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, BTC prices dropped to about $63,000, triggering market volatility.
Market maker Enflux stated in its latest market report that this rebound largely resulted from short covering. Traders betting on further declines in BTC were forced to cover their positions after the conflict did not escalate quickly, pushing prices higher. Enflux noted that the market has not fully priced in more severe risks nor the scenario of conflict easing; Bitcoin often acts as a “pressure valve” for capital during uncertain times.
Continued inflows of institutional funds have provided strong support for Bitcoin prices. Data shows that over the past five trading days, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of approximately $1.45 billion. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, said in an interview on March 2 that many institutional investors view recent BTC price corrections as strategic buying opportunities. After nearly two years of engagement with Bitwise, a potential client finally decided to allocate $11 million to Bitcoin.
Hougan pointed out that the institutional investment process is usually lengthy. On average, Bitwise clients need about eight meetings before making an investment decision, and some large investors only discuss quarterly, so the observed “wait-and-see” attitude is often just part of standard compliance procedures. Currently, three of the four major US brokerages can proactively discuss Bitcoin asset allocation with clients.
On-chain data shows that market sentiment remains cautious. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 36 last week to 41 but remains below the key level of 50, which is dominated by bulls. Meanwhile, trading volume increased from about $6.6 billion to $9.6 billion, indicating that buying and selling forces in the spot market are gradually balancing.
In the derivatives market, the overall structure still favors bears, although leveraged long positions have decreased in cost. Market forecast data also suggests a cautious investor attitude. Related contracts show that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $65,000 in March has decreased to 73%, and the chance of falling to $60,000 has dropped to 41%. Another contract predicting whether BTC will fall back to $60,000 before breaking above $80,000 has a probability of 61%.
Market analysts believe that, amid continued institutional inflows and unresolved macro risks, Bitcoin prices may remain volatile between $60,000 and $70,000 in the short term. The price trend will continue to be influenced by geopolitical risks, ETF capital flows, and institutional allocation rhythms.
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