2026-04-22 17:01:11
High-Win-Rate Account Bets $40K on Trump Maintaining Strait of Hormuz Blockade Until April 30 on Polymarket
Polymarket's Trump Strait of Hormuz bet: a top trader bets Trump won't end the blockade; resolution hinges on a formal public announcement lifting it by the deadline, not on its real-world effectiveness.
Abstract: The article describes a Polymarket prediction market event about whether President Trump will end the Strait of Hormuz blockade before April 30. A high-win-rate trader invested about $40,000 betting that the blockade would not be lifted, at an average price of 0.685. The market resolves to "yes" only if a qualifying public statement explicitly lifts the blockade by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline; informal statements, leaks, or anonymous sources do not qualify. Public statements from Trump, including Truth Social posts or videos, count toward a "yes." The resolution depends solely on the existence of a formal announcement, not on the blockade's real-world effectiveness.